In just a few weeks, over one million Kenyan students will make history, becoming the first cohort to transition from Junior to Senior Secondary school under the Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC). This moment marks a critical juncture for the nation's ambitious education reforms, a pivot from the long-standing 8-4-4 system towards a more flexible, pathway-based model. The air is thick with a mix of official optimism and public anxiety.

The transition, slated for January 2026, is the culmination of years of planning, promising a future where students pursue their passions in one of three streams: Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM); Arts and Sports Science; or Social Sciences. The stakes are immense, not just for the students, but for a country betting on this new system to equip its youth with the skills needed for the modern economy. How this transition unfolds will directly impact household budgets, career trajectories, and Kenya's development for decades to come.

The New Equation for Success

Gone is the single, high-stakes KCPE exam. In its place, a more complex formula will determine a student's future. Placement into Senior School hinges on a blended score:

• 60% from the Kenya Junior Secondary Education Assessment (KJSEA) sat at the end of Grade 9.
• 20% from school-based assessments in Grades 7 and 8.
• 20% from the Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA) taken in Grade 6.

Learners have been guided to select 12 schools based on their preferred pathways, a process designed to align individual aptitude with national priorities. The Ministry of Education has allocated 60% of the slots to the STEM pathway, signaling a clear focus on building a science and tech-driven workforce.

Cracks in the Foundation?

Despite assurances from the Ministry, significant concerns about infrastructure threaten to undermine a smooth rollout. Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Migos announced plans to fund the construction of 1,600 laboratories, with a promise they would be ready by January. However, primary school heads have sounded the alarm over glaring gaps, citing shortages of labs, workshops, and ICT facilities as major obstacles.

A recent report highlighted these systemic challenges, noting that underfunded infrastructure and delayed capitation payments are impeding quality education. This has created a visible divide, with many private schools appearing well-prepared while public institutions, which serve the majority of learners, struggle to catch up. The question on many parents' minds is whether their children will have the tools to compete, regardless of the school they attend.

The Shilling in the Conversation

For Kenyan households, the transition's success will be measured at the dinner table. The cost of education remains a primary concern. Responding to this, the Ministry of Education is developing a new, affordable fee structure that will vary based on the chosen learning pathway and school category, replacing the old system of national and county schools. Director of Secondary Education, Dr. William Sugut, confirmed a team is working on figures that will be "affordable for the purpose of ensuring that children can access education."

The government has allocated KSh 702.7 billion (approx. $5.4 billion USD) to the education sector in the 2025/2026 budget to support this transition, including capitation for schools. Yet, with heads of schools previously highlighting significant funding gaps and delays, parents remain watchful, hoping the promised affordability becomes a reality.

As the January deadline approaches, the nation looks on. The success of this transition rests not just on policy papers and ministerial decrees, but on the tangible readiness of schools on the ground. For the million-plus students standing at this educational crossroads, the hope is that the path ahead is one of opportunity, not obstacles.