BELÉM, BRAZIL – A powerful coalition of activists and climate-vulnerable nations is leveraging the COP30 climate summit, running from November 10-21, 2025, to demand a legally binding Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to end global reliance on coal, oil, and gas. The impassioned pleas in Belém place a spotlight on nations like Kenya, which champion renewable energy on the world stage while simultaneously pursuing fossil fuel extraction within their borders.

"If we continue to extract hydrocarbons from the Earth, we will exterminate ourselves," Olivia Bissa, president of the Chapra Nation in the Peruvian Amazon, stated at the summit. Her stark warning captures the urgency of the treaty's proponents, who argue the 2023 COP28 agreement to "transition away" from fossil fuels lacks the teeth to compel meaningful action.

The proposed treaty is now endorsed by 17 nations, primarily small island and developing states highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Colombia, and Samoa. The World Health Organization and the European Parliament have also backed the initiative. However, it faces significant opposition from major oil producers and political figures advocating for increased drilling.

Kenya's Contradictory Position

While Kenya has not endorsed the treaty, its government is facing increasing calls from domestic civil society and faith leaders to do so. In recent months, groups including the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims (SUPKEM), the Inter-Religious Council of Kenya, and the Maasai community have publicly urged the government to join the treaty initiative, citing the devastating local impacts of the climate crisis.

This pressure highlights a central conflict in Kenya's national policy. The country is a continental leader in green energy, generating over 90% of its electricity from renewable sources such as geothermal, hydro, and wind power. It has committed to reaching 100% renewable electricity by 2030 and has enacted a robust Climate Change Act. Yet, the government is actively promoting new fossil fuel exploration. Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi announced plans for a licensing round for ten new oil and gas blocks in September 2025 and hopes to begin commercial crude oil exports from the South Lokichar basin by 2026. This basin is estimated to hold 560 million recoverable barrels of oil.

The Local Cost of a Global Crisis

For many Kenyans, the debate is not abstract. The country is acutely vulnerable to climate change, with its economy heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, which employs over 80% of the rural population. A 2023 World Bank report warned that without significant climate action, Kenya's GDP could shrink by up to 7.25% by 2050. The same report projected that climate impacts could push an additional 1.1 million Kenyans into poverty by mid-century.

Recent years have seen a devastating cycle of extreme weather events. After a protracted drought—the worst in decades—that pushed millions into food insecurity, the country experienced severe flooding in late 2023 and 2024 that displaced thousands and destroyed infrastructure. The Kenya Meteorological Department's 2023 State of the Climate report confirmed a long-term warming trend, accelerating sea-level rise along the coast, and extreme rainfall variability. These events underscore the tangible threats that a continued global reliance on fossil fuels poses to Kenya's development goals and the livelihoods of its citizens.

A Diplomatic and Economic Crossroads

As negotiations proceed in Belém, Kenya finds itself at a critical juncture. Supporting the treaty would align with its celebrated green energy credentials and its role as a voice for climate-vulnerable nations, potentially unlocking international finance for its transition. However, forgoing potential oil revenues presents a significant economic challenge, especially with public debt exceeding KSh 10.1 trillion.

The outcome of COP30 and the growing momentum behind the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty will force a reckoning. For Kenya, the path forward requires balancing its immediate economic aspirations with the escalating and undeniable costs of a warming planet. The decisions made here will have profound implications for the nation's energy future, its economic stability, and the well-being of its people for decades to come.