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Kenyans in several key regions should brace for increased rainfall and isolated heavy downpours over the next seven days, raising concerns about localised flooding and its potential impact on livelihoods and infrastructure.
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued an alert forecasting increased rainfall across six key regions of the country from Tuesday, October 21, to Monday, October 27, 2025. Residents are advised to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions as isolated heavy downpours could lead to localised flooding.
The affected regions include the Central Highlands (which encompasses Nairobi), the Lake Victoria Basin, Western Kenya, the South-eastern Lowlands, the Rift Valley, and North-western Kenya. The KMD, the authoritative voice on weather and climate information in Kenya, highlighted that while rainfall is expected to increase, isolated heavy events are a possibility in some areas.
Alongside the increased precipitation, the forecast indicates that daytime temperatures exceeding 30°C will persist in the Coastal, North-eastern, and North-western regions. Conversely, night-time temperatures are expected to drop below 10°C in parts of the Central Highlands, Central Rift Valley, and areas surrounding Mt. Kilimanjaro.
Kenya's weather patterns are crucial for its economy, particularly the agriculture sector, which employs over 50% of Kenyans and contributes nearly 30% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The October-December 'short rains' season is vital, contributing up to 70% of annual rainfall in some areas, making accurate forecasts critical for food production.
The country has a history of severe weather events. For instance, between March and May 2024, Kenya experienced excessive rainfall and flash floods that affected 42 out of 47 counties, displacing over 280,000 people and causing more than 260 fatalities. These floods submerged over 41,000 acres of farmland, leading to significant crop damage and disrupting trade and livelihoods.
The KMD operates under a mandate to provide timely early warning weather and climate information to ensure safety of life, protect property, and conserve the natural environment. This mandate is aligned with Executive Orders from the Government of Kenya and the World Meteorological Organization Convention. County disaster committees are legally required to prepare response frameworks for such advisories, coordinating with national bodies like the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) to mitigate risks.
Previous flood events have severely impacted vulnerable communities, especially those in informal settlements. In Nairobi, over 40,000 households in informal settlements were displaced in 2024, leading to government-led demolitions of structures near riverbanks. These communities often lose essential sanitation facilities, informal schools, and sources of income.
The anticipated heavy rainfall carries a significant risk of localised flooding, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone areas. Urban areas like Nairobi are especially vulnerable due to rapid urbanisation, inadequate drainage systems, and informal settlements often located in riparian zones. Flooding can disrupt transport networks, damage infrastructure, and severely impact agricultural output through soil erosion and crop destruction.
Beyond immediate damage, floods pose serious public health implications. Stagnant water creates breeding grounds for mosquitoes, increasing the risk of malaria, while contaminated water sources can lead to outbreaks of cholera and typhoid. Healthcare facilities, particularly in low-resource areas, face challenges with severed transportation links and hindered access to medical supplies and personnel during such events.
While the KMD has provided a clear forecast for the coming week, the long-term outlook for the October-December 2025 'short rains' season remains complex. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have indicated a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most of eastern Kenya due to a developing weak La Niña pattern and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. This contrasts with the current forecast of increased rainfall in some regions, highlighting the variability and challenges in predicting seasonal patterns.
The KMD's current forecast covers the period from Tuesday, October 21, to Monday, October 27, 2025. The department will continue to monitor weather patterns and issue updates as necessary. Residents in identified high-risk areas are urged to heed advisories from local authorities and prepare for potential disruptions.
Kenyans should closely monitor daily weather updates from the KMD. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on agricultural areas, particularly in Western Kenya, which is projected to receive near-to-above average rainfall during the short rains season. The effectiveness of county-level disaster preparedness and response mechanisms in mitigating flood impacts will also be a key area to watch.
Previous reports have highlighted the devastating effects of heavy rainfall and flooding in Kenya, including flash floods displacing families in areas like Ndabibi, Naivasha. The broader context of climate change continues to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of such extreme weather events across the country.
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