BELÉM, BRAZIL – Kenya has firmly positioned itself within a coalition of nations advocating for a clear and decisive roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels at the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), which commenced on Monday, November 10, 2025, here in Belém. This diplomatic effort, gaining momentum after a strong opening call by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, sets up a significant confrontation with powerful oil and gas-producing states.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, leading the Kenyan delegation on behalf of President William Ruto, reiterated the nation's call for specific timelines for a global fossil fuel phase-out. "Kenya is renewing its call for decisive global action on climate change," Kindiki stated during the Leaders' Summit, emphasizing the need for COP30 to “settle the pending and urgent question of a global fossil fuel phase-out.” This stance is a continuation of the narrative established at the Africa Climate Summits in Nairobi (2023) and Addis Ababa (2025), aiming to position Africa as a provider of climate solutions and a hub for green investment.

The push for a formal "roadmap" is not officially on the COP30 agenda, but countries including Kenya, France, Germany, Colombia, the UK, and Denmark are engaged in a concerted diplomatic push to have it included in the final negotiated package. The goal is to achieve a consensus decision among the nearly 200 participating nations, which would carry more weight than a voluntary declaration. Observers suggest this could be incorporated into a cover decision brokered by the Brazilian COP presidency.

Kenya's Green Energy Leadership

Kenya's assertive position is backed by its significant domestic progress in renewable energy. According to Deputy President Kindiki, 93% of the country's electricity is already generated from renewable sources like geothermal, wind, and solar power. This progress has garnered international recognition and supports the nation's ambitious target of achieving 100% green energy by 2030. The government is also working towards universal electricity access by 2030 and phasing out the use of biomass for cooking by 2028.

This transition is not without its economic challenges. Kenya is mobilizing significant capital, estimated at USD 600 billion, for its full energy transition and reskilling its workforce for the green economy. The success of these national ambitions is heavily reliant on international climate finance, a key point of contention at COP30. Kenya's updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, but achieving 80% of this target is conditional on receiving international financial support and technology transfer.

Global Divisions and Opposition

The initiative faces stiff opposition from major oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which have resisted efforts to include fossil fuels in negotiated texts. Russia's chief negotiator, Vladimir Uskov, dismissed the push, arguing that developing nations require fossil fuels for basic energy access. An estimated 70 countries are believed to be opposed to any new decision addressing fossil fuels at this summit.

Despite the historic agreement at COP28 in Dubai to "transition away from fossil fuels," global production plans tell a different story. A UN-backed report released in September 2025 found that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This production gap highlights the immense challenge facing the coalition Kenya has joined.

Implications for East Africa

For Kenya and the broader East African region, a global shift from fossil fuels presents both opportunities and challenges. The region has vast, largely untapped renewable energy potential, particularly in solar and wind power. A structured global phase-out could accelerate investment in these resources, fostering green industrialization and creating jobs. However, the transition requires a just framework to protect developing nations from economic shocks. The Kenyan delegation, alongside the African Group of Negotiators, is advocating for such a framework, ensuring that Africa's resources are leveraged for its own development.

The negotiations in Belém, scheduled to conclude on Friday, November 21, 2025, are seen as a critical test of global commitment to the Paris Agreement. The outcome of the debate on a fossil fuel phase-out will have profound implications for Kenya's economy, its climate resilience, and its role as a leader in Africa's burgeoning green energy sector.