NAIROBI, Kenya - Most of Kenya is expected to experience sunny and dry weather for the week of Tuesday, November 11, to Monday, November 17, 2025, according to the latest forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). While these conditions will prevail in many areas, the agency has also predicted periods of rainfall in specific regions, including the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, and parts of the South-eastern lowlands and North-eastern Kenya.

This forecast signals a shift from recent heavy rainfall, with close to 40 counties anticipated to receive only light showers. The expected dry spells arrive amidst a backdrop of increasingly erratic weather patterns that have left farmers and pastoralists struggling with the impacts of climate change.

Regional Breakdown and Temperature Variations

The KMD's seven-day forecast indicates significant temperature fluctuations across the nation. Daytime temperatures are projected to exceed 30°C in several areas, including the Coast, North-eastern, and North-western regions. Parts of the South-eastern lowlands and the Highlands West of the Rift Valley will also experience these high temperatures.

Conversely, cooler conditions are expected at night in some areas. Parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and the Central Rift Valley may see temperatures drop below 10°C.

Specific regional forecasts include:

• Nairobi and Highlands East of the Rift Valley: These areas, including counties like Nyeri and Kiambu, are expected to have cloudy mornings with occasional rain, followed by sunny intervals. Afternoon and night showers are also likely in some locations.
• Highlands West of the Rift Valley & Lake Victoria Basin: Counties such as Kakamega, Kisii, and Nakuru will likely see sunny intervals in the morning, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
• North-western Kenya: Turkana and Samburu counties are forecast to have dominant sunny intervals during the day with partly cloudy nights.
• North-eastern Kenya: For counties like Marsabit, Mandera, and Garissa, sunny intervals are expected to dominate, although there is a chance of morning rains and light afternoon showers in isolated places.

Implications for Agriculture and Water Resources

The forecast of predominantly dry and hot conditions is a significant concern for Kenya's agricultural sector, which is heavily reliant on rain-fed farming. Prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall disrupt traditional farming cycles, affecting crop growth and productivity. Climate change has already led to increased temperatures and unpredictable rainfall, resulting in challenges like water scarcity, heat stress on crops, and changes in pest and disease patterns.

Pastoralist communities in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), which cover about 80% of Kenya, are particularly vulnerable. Drought conditions often lead to poor pasture, disrupting livelihoods and sometimes forcing migration in search of water and grazing land. The October to December 2025 "Short Rains" season was already predicted to have below-average rainfall in many eastern and coastal regions, influenced by a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a potential La Niña event.

While recent heavy rains in previous months led to some dams, like those in the Seven Forks cascade, reaching full capacity in May 2025, the impending dry weather could strain water resources. The balance between periods of intense rain causing floods and prolonged dry spells leading to drought has become a defining challenge for the region.

Broader Climate Context

This week's weather forecast aligns with broader climate outlooks for East Africa, which point towards a trend of climatic extremes. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) noted a delayed and erratic start to the October to December rains across the eastern Horn of Africa. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development's (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) had also forecasted drier and warmer than usual conditions for many parts of the region.

These variable conditions underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies. Initiatives are underway to improve water infrastructure, such as the Horn of Africa Groundwater for Resilience Project in Marsabit and Turkana, which aims to combat water scarcity. However, the persistent cycle of droughts and floods continues to pose a significant threat to food security and livelihoods across Kenya.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has advised that this seven-day outlook should be used alongside daily 24-hour county-specific forecasts for more detailed and immediate information.