Kenya's long and arduous battle against HIV/AIDS stands at a critical financial crossroads, requiring a staggering KES 30 billion to prevent a reversal of hard-won gains ahead of World AIDS Day on December 1st.

The stark warning, delivered by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, places a spotlight on the country's heavy reliance on dwindling international aid. This funding gap jeopardizes the supply of life-saving antiretroviral (ARV) drugs for more than 1.3 million Kenyans and threatens the national goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

A Looming Treatment Crisis

The KES 30 billion shortfall is not an abstract figure; it represents the potential disruption of treatment, prevention, and care services across the nation. Kenya's HIV response has been largely underwritten by external partners, with donors financing approximately 63.5% of the total budget. Key contributors include the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has invested over $7 billion (approx. KES 904.7 billion) in Kenya since 2003, and The Global Fund.

However, recent shifts in global health priorities and funding cuts have created significant uncertainty. "The world is telling us to take care of our own sick and not to wait for external aid," Mudavadi emphasized during a recent public address, signaling a necessary pivot towards domestic financing.

This financial pressure comes as new data reveals a complex picture of the epidemic in Kenya:

• **People Living with HIV:** Approximately 1.33 million Kenyans were living with HIV in 2025.
• **Treatment Coverage:** 97% of those diagnosed are on antiretroviral therapy.
• **New Infections:** Worryingly, new infections rose by 19% in the past year, totaling 19,991 cases, with young people aged 15-34 accounting for the majority.
• **Regional Disparities:** Nairobi County recorded the highest number of new infections with 3,045 cases.

The Human Cost of Austerity

For the average Kenyan family, the consequences of this funding gap are dire. A disruption in the supply of ARVs, which cost the government about KES 20,000 per person annually, could lead to treatment interruptions, increased drug resistance, and a rise in AIDS-related deaths. AIDS-related fatalities had already increased slightly to 21,007 in 2024, a trend that could accelerate without immediate intervention.

Health officials have already begun the process of integrating HIV services into mainstream outpatient care to improve efficiency and reduce stigma, a move made more urgent by the funding crisis. Yet, this cannot replace the need for a sustainable funding model. The government is now faced with the daunting task of raising these funds domestically to retain healthcare workers and maintain the integrity of the treatment program.

As the world marks another World AIDS Day, Kenya's progress hangs in the balance. The call for KES 30 billion is more than a budget line; it is a lifeline for over a million people and a test of the nation's commitment to securing its own healthy future.