NAIROBI – Kenyan voters in 24 electoral areas will head to the polls on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in a series of by-elections that have morphed into a national-level stress test for the country's political heavyweights. The contests for one senate seat, six National Assembly positions, and 17 Member of County Assembly (MCA) wards are widely seen as a crucial barometer of the political climate, offering the first significant measure of public mood ahead of the 2027 general election.

The by-elections, scheduled by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), are poised to reshape alliances and either solidify or challenge the influence of President William Ruto's ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and a newly configured United Opposition. These mini-polls are the first major electoral challenge for the new IEBC, led by Chairperson Erastus Ethekon, and a significant test of its capacity to manage a credible process. The vacancies arose from a mix of deaths, court nullifications, and appointments of incumbents to state positions.

Key Battlegrounds and Power Plays

The political focus has narrowed on several hotly contested constituencies, each serving as a proxy war for national political figures. The races in Malava (Kakamega County) and Mbeere North (Embu County) have emerged as the premier battlegrounds, directly pitting President Ruto’s camp against the United Opposition, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

In Malava, the contest is a significant test of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi's influence in his Western Kenya backyard. Mudavadi is leading the UDA campaign for candidate David Ndakwa, framing the election as an opportunity for the region to align with the national government for development. He faces a formidable challenge from the United Opposition’s candidate, Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), who has shown a lead in recent polling. A recent Mizani Africa survey conducted between November 13 and 15 placed Panyako ahead at 47.2% against Ndakwa’s 40.3%, with 9.4% of voters undecided. President Ruto’s close aide, Farouk Kibet, has been heavily involved in UDA's ground operations, underscoring the high stakes for the ruling party.

Mbeere North presents a direct confrontation between Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, campaigning for UDA's Leonard Muriuki Wamuthende, and Rigathi Gachagua, who is backing the Democratic Party's Newton Karish. This race is widely interpreted as a referendum on President Ruto's grip on the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region following his fallout with Gachagua. Polling in Mbeere North suggests a statistical dead heat, with a Mizani Africa poll placing Wamuthende at 44.6% and Karish at 42.4%, a margin within the survey's margin of error.

Local Conflicts and Shifting Alliances

While Malava and Mbeere North capture national attention, other constituencies feature intense local dynamics. In Kasipul, Homa Bay County, the ODM party faces a serious challenge. The contest has been marred by violence, tragically leading to the deaths of two youths in early November. The IEBC has since intervened, fining the leading candidates—ODM's Boyd Were and independent Philip Aroko—for breaches of the electoral code of conduct and enforcing a harmonized campaign schedule. The race has also exposed a significant rift within the Homa Bay county government, with Governor Gladys Wanga (ODM National Chairperson) campaigning for the party candidate while her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, has publicly endorsed the independent candidate, Aroko, citing flawed party nominations.

In Ugunja, Siaya County, the by-election was necessitated by the appointment of former MP Opiyo Wandayi to the Cabinet. In a strategic move reflecting the current political cooperation, President Ruto announced that UDA would not field a candidate, instead backing the eventual ODM nominee to foster national unity. This has positioned ODM's Moses Omondi as the strong favourite in the party's traditional stronghold.

The Magarini race in Kilifi County has been characterized by opposition claims of a government plot to rig the election through voter bribery. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka alleged a scheme to offer voters up to KSh 5,000 to photograph their marked ballots. The United Opposition has coalesced behind DCP candidate Stanley Kenga to face the ODM-led government-allied candidate, Harrison Kombe.

In Banisa, Mandera County, the election is expected to be a one-horse race. Residents have reportedly endorsed UDA's Ahmed Maalim Hassan to succeed his late brother, Kullow Maalim Hassan, who passed away in March 2023. A court case challenging Hassan's eligibility over alleged dual citizenship was dismissed, clearing his path.

A Rehearsal for 2027

Leaders from all political camps have explicitly framed the by-elections as a dress rehearsal for 2027. The United Opposition, a coalition of parties including Gachagua's DCP, Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper, and Eugene Wamalwa's DAP-K, is using the polls to test its strategy of fielding single candidates to avoid splitting votes. "What is happening in these by-elections is a dress rehearsal for mechanisms to get a single candidate to face Ruto," Gachagua stated on November 3, 2025.

For President Ruto, the outcomes will serve as a crucial performance review of his key allies and his administration's popularity two years into his term. A strong showing would solidify his position, while significant losses, particularly in perceived strongholds, could force a strategic recalibration ahead of his re-election campaign. The President has largely kept off the campaign trail, a move pundits suggest is deliberate to gauge the political clout of his lieutenants like Mudavadi and Kindiki. As the campaign period officially concluded at 6:00 p.m. EAT on Monday, November 24, the nation now awaits the verdict of the voters, a verdict that will undoubtedly echo far beyond the boundaries of these 24 electoral zones.