NAIROBI – Morara Kebaso, leader of the INJECT party, issued a stark warning on Thursday, November 13, 2025, asserting that Kenya is on a perilous economic path under President William Ruto’s administration. Citing unsustainable public debt, burdensome taxation, and a rising cost of living, Kebaso predicted these factors could culminate in a severe economic crisis and heighten political tensions ahead of the 2028 general elections.

Speaking from Nairobi, the opposition figure, who has positioned himself as a voice for the youth, argued that the government's economic strategies are failing to alleviate the financial pressures on ordinary citizens. "The current trajectory is not sustainable. We are witnessing a government that is borrowing heavily while simultaneously imposing taxes that stifle economic growth and hurt the common Mwananchi," Kebaso stated. His comments build on his recent calls for youth unity to address joblessness and economic hardship.

Economic Indicators Under Scrutiny

An examination of Kenya's key economic indicators presents a complex picture. Kebaso's concerns about public debt are substantiated by official data. As of September 2025, Kenya's public debt surpassed KES 12.05 trillion. The National Treasury's 2025 Medium Term Debt Management Strategy acknowledged that Kenya remains at a high risk of debt distress, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 67.3% as of September 2025, significantly above the 55% threshold recommended for developing economies. Projections show that debt servicing costs are expected to exceed KES 1 trillion in interest payments alone in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, consuming a substantial portion of national revenue.

The government has shifted its borrowing strategy, increasingly relying on the domestic market to finance its budget. Between June and September 2025, domestic borrowing rose by KES 340 billion while external debt saw a reduction. While this strategy aims to mitigate foreign exchange risks, critics, including Kebaso, argue it crowds out the private sector, as high-yield government bonds become more attractive to banks than lending to businesses. The World Bank noted in May 2025 that high domestic borrowing rates risk squeezing private sector credit, a crucial engine for job creation.

Inflation and the Cost of Living

On the issue of the cost of living, recent data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that headline inflation held steady at 4.6% in October 2025, which is within the Central Bank of Kenya's target range of 2.5% to 7.5%. However, this overall figure masks significant price increases in essential goods. Non-core inflation, which includes volatile food and fuel prices, stood at 9.9%, indicating that households continue to face pressure on their budgets. For instance, prices for electricity, certain foodstuffs like oranges and potatoes, and transport fares have risen, directly impacting household expenses.

The Government's Counter-Narrative

The Ruto administration has consistently defended its economic policies, framing them as necessary foundational reforms for long-term prosperity. President Ruto and his allies point to the stabilized shilling and controlled inflation as evidence of success. In a statement on November 10, 2025, the President defended his ambitious KES 4.5 trillion plan to transform Kenya into a first-world nation by 2055 through investments in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture, asserting it would not require new taxes. The administration has emphasized its Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) and the controversial Finance Act 2025 as key pillars for generating revenue and funding development without resorting to excessive external borrowing.

Government officials argue that policies like the fertilizer subsidy and investments in affordable housing are designed to spur growth from the grassroots. During Mashujaa Day celebrations on October 20, 2025, President Ruto outlined a vision for industrialization and value addition, aiming to transform Kenya into an export-driven economy.

Implications for 2028

Kebaso's warning connects these economic grievances directly to the political landscape of 2028. Historically, economic conditions have played a significant role in Kenyan elections. Persistent unemployment, particularly among the youth—a demographic Kebaso actively courts—and a high cost of living could fuel political discontent. His prediction of a "tense" election reflects a scenario where economic anxieties could be mobilized by opposition figures to challenge the incumbent government's record.

While the World Bank has lowered Kenya's 2025 growth forecast to 4.5% due to debt risks and other challenges, it projects a gradual recovery to around 5% in 2026-27. The ultimate economic reality for Kenyans in the run-up to 2028 will depend on whether the government's long-term strategies can deliver tangible relief and opportunities that outweigh the short-term pain of fiscal consolidation and new taxes. For now, the competing narratives of an impending crisis versus a necessary, foundational reform will continue to define Kenya's political and economic discourse.