A Constituency in Mourning, A Party at a Crossroads

The Kasipul constituency by-election, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, has transcended its local importance, becoming a critical litmus test for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as it navigates a new political era following the death of its long-time leader, Raila Odinga, on October 15, 2025. The poll, necessitated by the assassination of the area's Member of Parliament, Charles Ong'ondo Were, in April 2025, is not only a race to find his successor but also a fierce battle for political dominance within Homa Bay County and a barometer of ODM's strength in a post-Raila landscape.

The contest has been tragically marred by violence, culminating in the deaths of two young men during clashes between rival supporters on November 6, 2025. This led the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to take the stern measure of fining the two frontrunners—ODM candidate Boyd Were, son of the late MP, and prominent independent candidate Philip Nahashon Aroko—KSh 1 million each for violating the Electoral Code of Conduct. The IEBC's disciplinary committee, chaired by Dr. Alutalala Mukhwana, found both candidates responsible for failing to adhere to the agreed-upon campaign schedule, which directly contributed to the fatal confrontations. The commission issued a final warning, stating that any further breaches could lead to disqualification, highlighting the volatile atmosphere in the constituency of 67,513 registered voters.

The Candidates and The Power Plays

Ten candidates were cleared by the IEBC to contest the seat, but the race is widely seen as a two-horse race between Mr. Were and Mr. Aroko. Boyd Were, 27, secured the ODM ticket in a contentious party primary held on September 24, 2025, which was characterized by claims of irregularities and low voter turnout. His candidacy is heavily backed by Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, who also serves as the ODM national chairperson, in a move seen by analysts as an attempt to maintain her political influence in the region. The IEBC has, however, criticized the Homa Bay county government for alleged interference and misuse of public resources in the campaigns.

Philip Aroko, a flamboyant businessman, opted to run as an independent despite being an ODM life member, a decision that underscores the deep divisions within the party at the local level. His campaign has gained significant grassroots traction, challenging ODM's historical dominance in the region. The rivalry between the two camps is not just political; it is also entangled with local clan dynamics and the unresolved trauma following the assassination of the previous MP. Mr. Aroko was reportedly arrested in connection with the MP's death but was later released without charge.

ODM's First Post-Raila Hurdle

For ODM, the stakes could not be higher. The Kasipul by-election is the party's first significant electoral challenge since Mr. Odinga's death, which has thrown the party into a period of uncertainty and exposed simmering succession battles. A loss in one of its bedrock constituencies would be perceived as a sign of weakening grip and could embolden rivals both within and outside the party. Conversely, a decisive victory would project an image of stability and continued dominance under its new leadership, currently under the interim guidance of Dr. Oburu Oginga.

The poll is also a microcosm of the broader power struggles within Homa Bay County politics, particularly between Governor Wanga and her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, a former Kasipul MP who reportedly holds sway with some of the candidates challenging the ODM ticket. The outcome is expected to have significant implications for the 2027 gubernatorial race and the realignment of political forces in the Nyanza region.

As security agencies, led by Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja, heighten their presence to prevent further violence, the residents of Kasipul are caught between a desire for peaceful leadership and the intense pressures of a high-stakes political contest. The result on Thursday will not only determine their next representative in the National Assembly but will also send a powerful message about the future direction of Kenya's largest opposition party in an era defined by the absence of its iconic founder.