Kanchory: Ruto Could Win in 2027, Even if Unpopular

NAIROBI, KENYA – Saitabao Ole Kanchory, a key figure in Raila Odinga's 2022 presidential campaign, has issued a stark warning that President William Ruto could secure a second term in 2027, regardless of his current unpopularity. The assertion from the former chief agent injects a dose of cynical realism into Kenya's political discourse, shifting focus from public sentiment to the mechanics of elections.

This declaration forces a crucial question for Kenyans grappling with a high cost of living and contentious fiscal policies: Does the ballot box truly reflect the will of the people, or are elections won elsewhere? Kanchory's statement suggests that the pathway to State House may depend less on popular support and more on mastering the intricate, often opaque, electoral machinery.

The System, Not the People

At the heart of Kanchory’s argument is a deep-seated skepticism about the electoral process itself. He posits that presidential contests are not simple popularity contests but complex operations where the ultimate outcome can be engineered long before polling day. "Very few people know how presidential elections are managed, won or lost,” Kanchory noted in a public statement, dismissing the idea that elections begin and end at the polling station as an "oversimplification of a very complex matter."

He argues that the real power lies within the institution managing the polls, which controls the entire architecture of the election. This includes voter registration, the location of polling stations, and the systems for transmitting and tallying results—all elements that, he implies, are susceptible to manipulation. This view is informed by his experience and detailed in his book, “Why Baba Is Not The 5th,” which chronicles the alleged systemic failures and internal disarray that cost Odinga the presidency.

A President Under Pressure

Kanchory's assessment comes as President Ruto navigates a wave of public discontent. Two years into his term, his administration is facing criticism over aggressive taxation policies and a struggling economy that has left many households feeling the pinch. Recent opinion polls reflect this reality, with a September 2025 survey indicating that 62% of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, citing economic hardship and governance issues.

The sentiment on the street often paints a picture of a presidency at odds with the populace. The Ruto administration's push for fiscal consolidation to manage Kenya's high public debt has come at a cost, with new taxes like the 1.5% housing levy proving deeply unpopular. This has fueled a perception that the government is disconnected from the daily struggles of ordinary citizens, whose real incomes have stagnated for nearly a decade.

An Opposition in Disarray?

While public dissatisfaction with the ruling party might seem like a fertile ground for the opposition, its current state raises questions about its ability to mount a formidable challenge in 2027. Recent by-elections have exposed a lack of coordination and internal friction, with instances of multiple opposition candidates splitting the vote, effectively handing victory to the ruling UDA party.

Political analysts observe that this disunity could play directly into the hands of the incumbent. Furthermore, President Ruto has successfully brought some opposition figures into his fold under a "broad-based government," a move that has been praised by some for promoting stability but criticized by others as a tactic to weaken the opposition from within. This has left voters with a blurred political landscape, questioning who truly stands in opposition.

As the 2027 election cycle inches closer, Saitabao Kanchory's provocative analysis serves as a critical reminder. For many Kenyans, the pressing concern is not just who will lead the country, but whether the system itself is designed to deliver a leader who addresses their fundamental needs for economic stability and a secure future. The coming years will test whether a discontented public can translate its frustration into a cohesive political force capable of overcoming the systemic challenges Kanchory warns of.