Homa Bay Town Member of Parliament Peter Kaluma has declared that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) will maintain its alliance with President William Ruto's administration past the 2027 General Election. This statement signals a potential long-term political realignment that could reshape Kenya's political landscape and has ignited debate within the ODM party itself.

Kaluma's assertion builds on a series of pronouncements from key ODM figures and follows a period of increasing collaboration between the historically rival political camps. The current partnership was formalized on Friday, March 7, 2025, when President Ruto, leader of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), and then-ODM leader Raila Odinga signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). At the time, both leaders emphasized that the agreement was a framework for national dialogue and not a formal coalition, aimed at addressing pressing national issues like the cost of living and youth unemployment through the implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report.

However, the cooperation has since deepened, with some of Odinga's allies being appointed to government positions, leading to the formation of what has been termed a "broad-based government". This has caused friction within ODM, creating factions that either support the alliance or advocate for maintaining an independent opposition stance.

Internal Party Dynamics and the Post-Odinga Era

The debate over the party's future has intensified following the death of its long-time leader, Raila Odinga, on October 15, 2025. Kaluma's recent statements, made in the context of gratitude for the state honors accorded to Odinga, suggest a faction within ODM is ready to fully commit to a Ruto presidency in 2027. "You, President William Ruto, honoured Baba... In his death, you stood with us in words and indeed. WE ARE GRATEFUL. WE ARE NOW YOUR PEOPLE... WE'LL APPRECIATE YOU IN 2027," Kaluma posted on social media on Monday, October 20, 2025.

This position is not universally held within the party. ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has consistently argued for the party to field its own presidential candidate in 2027 and remain independent. The party's new interim leader, Dr. Oburu Oginga, has stated that while the party is in the broad-based government to stay until 2027, any support for Ruto beyond that would be conditional, potentially on an ODM member being the presidential running mate. These differing views highlight the challenge ODM faces in charting its course without its unifying figurehead.

Strategic Calculations for 2027

President Ruto, for his part, has actively courted the ODM base, particularly in the Nyanza and Western regions. Speaking at Odinga's funeral on Sunday, October 19, 2025, Ruto pledged to support and keep ODM united, stating that the party would "either form the next government or be part of the next government." This has been interpreted as a clear signal of a potential coalition.

Political analysts suggest this rapprochement is a strategic move by the President to consolidate support beyond his traditional strongholds, especially given potential shifts in other regions like Central Kenya. For ODM, a continued alliance could ensure its relevance and influence in government, a position some leaders, like Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Sherriff Nassir, have openly supported.

The evolving relationship between UDA and ODM is a significant development in Kenyan politics. While the 2025 MoU was initially framed as a non-partisan cooperation agreement, the rhetoric from influential figures like Peter Kaluma and President Ruto himself suggests it may be the foundation for a powerful 2027 electoral alliance. As ODM navigates its future, the internal debate between maintaining its opposition identity and cementing a partnership with the ruling party will be critical in determining the country's political trajectory. The party has announced it will harmonize the diverse views and announce an official position in due course.