NAIROBI – A revitalised strategic alignment between Japan and India is set to reshape the security and economic landscape of the Indo-Pacific, a vast maritime expanse stretching from Africa's eastern coast to the Western Pacific. The partnership, underscored on Thursday, November 20, 2025, by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, has direct consequences for Kenya, placing the nation's critical maritime trade routes and regional security interests at the centre of a new geopolitical dynamic.

The alliance solidifies the convergence of two parallel foreign policy visions: Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) strategy and India's "Indo-Pacific Oceans' Initiative" (IPOI). While ostensibly promoting a rules-based international order, freedom of navigation, and economic prosperity, the pact is widely seen as a strategic counterbalance to China's expanding influence across the region. For Kenya, whose largest trading partner and infrastructure financier is China, this development necessitates a careful diplomatic balancing act.

Japan's FOIP concept was notably first announced by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Nairobi during the 2016 Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD), highlighting Kenya's long-standing strategic importance to Tokyo's vision for the region. This vision aims to enhance connectivity between Asia and Africa, with a stable and secure maritime environment as its prerequisite.

A Partnership Solidified by Action

The Japan-India relationship has evolved beyond rhetoric into a robust, institutionalised partnership. A cornerstone of this is the "2+2" ministerial dialogue, which brings together the foreign and defence ministers of both nations to align strategic and security priorities. This high-level coordination has paved the way for concrete cooperation.

In a landmark move in 2024, Japan agreed to the first-ever transfer of defence equipment to India, involving advanced Unified Complex Radio Antenna (UNICORN) technology for naval ships. This stealth-enhancing technology is a significant force multiplier for the Indian Navy, which is increasingly active in the Western Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the two nations have increased the complexity and frequency of joint military exercises. These include the "Dharma Guardian" army drills and the "JIMEX" series of naval exercises, both designed to enhance interoperability and joint operational capabilities.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The Western Indian Ocean is a critical artery for global trade and the economic lifeline for Kenya, with the Port of Mombasa serving as the gateway to East and Central Africa. China's strategic interests in the region have grown substantially, marked by port construction projects and an increased naval presence, including a military base in Djibouti. The Japan-India pact is poised to introduce a more assertive democratic naval presence in these waters.

This has several direct implications for Nairobi:

• Enhanced Maritime Security: Both Japan and India have active maritime security partnerships with Kenya. In October 2025, Kenya's Commander of the Navy, Major General Paul Otieno, met with his Indian counterpart in New Delhi to bolster cooperation under the "BAHARI" joint maritime vision, launched in December 2023 by President William Ruto and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Similarly, Japan has provided funding and training to the Kenya Coast Guard Service and its naval forces to enhance operational capacity. A more coordinated Japan-India presence could bolster efforts against piracy, illegal fishing, and drug trafficking, which threaten Kenya's blue economy.
• Port of Mombasa Geopolitics: Japan has been a significant partner in the development of the Port of Mombasa. As Tokyo and New Delhi collaborate on building resilient supply chains and offering alternatives to China's Belt and Road Initiative, Mombasa could become a focal point of geoeconomic competition, potentially unlocking new investment opportunities for Kenya.
• Diplomatic Navigation: The heightened strategic competition requires Kenya to navigate its relationships with global powers carefully. Maintaining strong economic ties with China while deepening security cooperation with the Japan-India-led bloc and Western partners will be a primary foreign policy challenge.

As Prime Minister Takaichi, a protégé of Shinzo Abe known for her hawkish foreign policy stance, steers Japan towards a more assertive security role, the Indo-Pacific's strategic realignment will continue to accelerate. For Kenya, the ripples from this distant power play are already reaching its shores, presenting both new opportunities for security collaboration and complex challenges for its long-held policy of non-alignment.