GLOBAL - The Israeli military conducted an intense wave of airstrikes on several towns in southern Lebanon on Thursday, November 6, 2025, significantly escalating tensions and placing a nearly year-old ceasefire with Hezbollah under severe strain. The attacks, which Israel stated were to prevent the armed group from rearming, targeted locations in Kfar Dounine, Tayr Debba, and Zawtar al-Sharqiya, among others.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued evacuation warnings via its Arabic-language spokesperson about an hour before the strikes, urging residents to move at least 500 metres away from buildings it claimed were part of Hezbollah's military infrastructure. While the Israeli military conducts strikes in Lebanon with regularity, the intensity of Thursday's operation and the preceding public warnings were unusual. According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least one person was killed and several others were wounded in the day's attacks.

Ceasefire Under Duress

The airstrikes represent the most significant challenge to a ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States and France, which took effect on November 27, 2024. The agreement, which ended 13 months of intense cross-border fighting, requires Hezbollah and other armed groups to disarm and move their forces north of the Litani River. It also mandates a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, a process that remains incomplete as Israel continues to occupy at least five positions along the border.

Hours before the Israeli assault, Hezbollah's leadership sent an open letter to the Lebanese government. In the letter, the group reaffirmed its commitment to the ceasefire but insisted on its "legitimate right to resist occupation and aggression." The letter also warned the Lebanese government against entering into direct political negotiations with Israel, a move recently suggested by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) condemned the Israeli airstrikes as "clear violations of Security Council Resolution 1701," the 2006 resolution that forms the basis of the current ceasefire. UNIFIL urged Israel to cease the attacks immediately and called on all parties to exercise restraint to prevent further escalation.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While the conflict is geographically distant, its escalation carries significant potential consequences for Kenya. The Kenyan government has previously expressed deep concern over instability in the Middle East, citing risks to the Kenyan diaspora and the regional economy. In a statement on November 27, 2024, welcoming the initial ceasefire, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi noted that the government had evacuated over 300 citizens from the region and that such efforts were ongoing. The government has repeatedly urged Kenyans in Lebanon to register with the embassy for safety and potential evacuation purposes.

Economically, Kenya is vulnerable to volatility in the Middle East, primarily through global energy markets. As a net importer of oil, any conflict that threatens key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a surge in crude oil prices. This would translate directly to higher fuel costs in Kenya, increasing transportation and production expenses and putting further pressure on an economy already facing inflationary challenges. Furthermore, expanded conflict could disrupt trade routes and supply chains, affecting Kenyan exports, such as tea and beef, to the region.

A Precarious Path Forward

The Israeli government has maintained that it will not allow Hezbollah to rebuild its military capabilities. An IDF official described Thursday's strikes as a "preview" of what would come if the Lebanese government fails to disarm the group. The Lebanese government, which has committed to asserting state control over all its territory, faces the immense challenge of implementing the ceasefire's terms amid deep political divisions and Hezbollah's significant military and political power.

The international community, including the United States, has called for the full disarmament of Hezbollah. However, with both sides accusing each other of violating the fragile truce, the prospects for a stable, long-term peace remain uncertain. The events of Thursday, November 6, have pushed the region closer to a wider confrontation, the ripple effects of which would be felt globally, including in East Africa.