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A breakthrough agreement between Israel and Hamas for a 'first phase' ceasefire in Gaza offers a glimmer of hope for an end to the two-year conflict, with implications for regional stability and Kenya's foreign policy.
A significant diplomatic development unfolded on Wednesday, October 8, 2025, as Israel and Hamas agreed to the "first phase" of a peace plan aimed at pausing hostilities and facilitating the release of hostages and prisoners in Gaza. This agreement, announced by former US President Donald Trump, represents the most promising step yet towards de-escalation in a conflict that has spanned two years, claimed tens of thousands of lives, and destabilised the Middle East.
President Trump stated on Truth Social that "ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace." Hamas also confirmed the agreement, noting it includes an Israeli withdrawal from the enclave and a hostage-prisoner exchange. Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey played crucial roles in brokering this deal.
The conflict has deeply impacted global geopolitics, with Kenya, like many nations, navigating complex diplomatic terrain. Initially, following the October 7, 2023, attacks, Kenyan President William Ruto condemned Hamas and expressed solidarity with Israel. However, Kenya's stance evolved, with the nation later voting in favour of a United Nations General Assembly resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian truce. This shift reflected a more diplomatic and humanitarian approach, emphasizing the widespread human cost of the violence.
Kenya has historically maintained friendly relations with both Palestine and Israel, hosting diplomatic missions for both in Nairobi. While Kenya's foreign policy has often leaned towards the West and, by extension, pro-Israel, it has also supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and advocates for a two-state solution.
The current agreement outlines a phased approach. The first phase involves the release of all remaining hostages by Hamas, estimated to be around 20 living individuals and the bodies of more than two dozen others. In exchange, Israel is expected to release Palestinian prisoners, including those serving life sentences and other Gazans detained since the conflict began. An initial, partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza to an agreed-upon line is also part of this phase.
The deal is expected to go before the Israeli cabinet for approval on Thursday, October 9, 2025. If approved, the Israeli military would begin its initial withdrawal within 24 hours, followed by Hamas releasing hostages within 72 hours.
The announcement has been met with cautious optimism globally. UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the agreement, urging all parties to "abide fully" by its terms and calling it a "momentous opportunity" for a two-state solution. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani's adviser, Majed al-Ansari, also confirmed the deal, highlighting its potential to end the war, facilitate hostage and prisoner releases, and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
For Kenyans, the conflict has raised concerns about economic and security implications. Past instances of Kenya supporting Israel have led to retaliatory attacks by Palestinian militants on Kenyan soil. Economists have also warned of potential impacts on energy costs and increased security risks for East African nations.
Despite the positive development, uncertainties remain. Previous ceasefires have faltered, and long-term questions regarding Gaza's future governance and reconstruction are unresolved. The disarmament of Hamas and the extent and pace of Israeli withdrawal are key issues that could still pose challenges. For Kenya, a prolonged or broader conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate existing economic challenges, including fuel price hikes and potential disruptions to oil supplies.
Details surrounding the implementation mechanisms of the agreement are yet to be fully disclosed. While a senior U.S. official indicated an initial, partial Israeli withdrawal within 24 hours of cabinet approval, the exact timeline for the full phased withdrawal remains unclear. The fate of deceased hostages and the process for their return also require further clarification.
Wednesday, October 8, 2025: Israel and Hamas agree to the "first phase" of a peace plan.
Thursday, October 9, 2025: Israeli cabinet expected to convene to approve the deal.
Within 24 hours of approval: Initial, partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Within 72 hours of implementation: Hamas expected to release all remaining hostages.
The world will be closely watching the Israeli cabinet's decision and the subsequent adherence to the agreed-upon terms by both Israel and Hamas. The successful implementation of this first phase will be crucial in building trust and paving the way for further negotiations towards a lasting peace. The role of international mediators, particularly Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, will remain vital in navigating potential obstacles.
