The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the behemoth of Kenyan opposition politics, is cracking at the seams. What began as whispers of discontent has erupted into an all-out civil war, with the party’s powerful Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna fighting for his political life.

In a dramatic sequence of events, a faction of the party announced Sifuna’s removal, replacing him with Busia Woman Representative Catherine Omanyo. The coup, however, ran into a brick wall in the form of the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal (PPDT), which issued a temporary stay order, keeping Sifuna in office—for now. But the legal reprieve has done little to quell the political firestorm consuming Orange House.

The Old Guard vs. The Young Turks

This is not just a personnel dispute; it is an ideological battle for the soul of the party. The faction led by Oburu Oginga, the elder statesman and brother to party leader Raila Odinga, has accused Sifuna’s camp of being "wreckers" doing the bidding of external forces—specifically pointing fingers at former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s influence in the Azimio coalition. "ODM is like Jonah," Oburu remarked metaphorically, describing a party being swallowed by a whale, with only Sifuna’s "legs" still kicking outside.

Sifuna, a combative and articulate defender of the party, is seen by his supporters as the last line of defense against the party’s total absorption into the government’s broad-based coalition. His detractors, however, view him as an obstacle to the new "cooperation" era.

• The Azimio Factor: The infighting has paralyzed the Azimio coalition. "Azimio is moribund without ODM," Oburu declared, signaling that if the orange party sneezes, the opposition coalition catches a cold.
• Wanga’s Defense: Amidst the chaos, party chairperson Gladys Wanga has found herself walking a tightrope, defending the party`s processes while trying to prevent a permanent split.

A House Divided

The chaos in ODM is a gift to the ruling UDA party, which watches from the sidelines as its main rival self-cannibalizes. The removal of a Secretary-General is a seismic event in Kenyan parties; it usually signals a changing of the guard or a purge of dissenters.

As the tribunal prepares to hear the substantive case on February 26, the question on every supporter`s mind is: Can ODM survive this internal hemorrhage? Things are falling apart, and the center can no longer hold.