NAIROBI, Kenya - The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is scheduled to deliver a decisive ruling today, Tuesday, November 18, 2025, on a spate of violent incidents that have marred the campaign period for the Kasipul constituency by-election. The decision by the Electoral Code of Conduct Enforcement Committee could result in severe sanctions, including fines or disqualification for candidates found responsible for the escalating violence that threatens the credibility of the November 27 poll.

The Homa Bay County constituency has been a flashpoint of political tension following the murder of its Member of Parliament, Charles Ong'ondo Were, in April 2025. The contest to succeed him has been fraught with confrontations, most notably between supporters of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate, Boyd Were—son of the late MP—and independent candidate Phillip Aroko. These clashes tragically resulted in the death of two youths in early November.

In a preliminary directive issued on Monday, November 17, the IEBC committee addressed four formal complaints, putting all candidates on notice. The commission explicitly warned ODM’s Boyd Were, Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) candidate Collins Okeyo, and Independent candidate Phillip Okeyo that they are accountable for ensuring their campaigns are conducted peacefully and without intimidation. The committee underscored that all candidates must adhere strictly to the harmonized campaign schedule they had previously agreed upon.

“Should there be reported clashes arising from failure to adhere to the harmonized campaign schedule, this Committee will exercise its powers as provided under paragraph 7 of the Second Schedule of the Elections Act, Cap 7,” the IEBC stated in a release. These powers range from a formal warning to the ultimate penalty of disqualification from the race.

Attack on Security Officers

The gravity of the security situation in Kasipul was starkly highlighted by a violent assault on officers from the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI). On Wednesday, November 12, a mob of over 100 youths attacked three DCI officers at the Kachien Village home of the late MP Ong'odo Were. The officers, including the Rachuonyo South DCI head Daniel Muhuhi, were attempting to arrest suspects linked to the recent murders of the two youths.

According to Homa Bay County Police Commander Lawrence Koilem, the officers had tracked the suspects to the homestead when they were ambushed with crude weapons. All three officers sustained serious injuries, and five suspects managed to escape, one of whom fled while still in handcuffs. The injured officers were subsequently hospitalized for treatment.

This brazen attack on law enforcement prompted Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja to announce enhanced security measures in Kasipul and other regions holding by-elections. He issued a stern warning that any individual involved in criminal activities would face the full force of the law, urging candidates to conduct their campaigns peacefully.

High Stakes and Political Context

The Kasipul by-election is a significant political test for ODM's dominance in the Nyanza region. The party, led by Governor Gladys Wanga in Homa Bay, has thrown its weight behind Boyd Were, who secured the party ticket in the September primaries. However, the race has attracted a total of ten cleared candidates, indicating a fractured political landscape.

The IEBC's intervention follows multiple complaints of intimidation and violations of the campaign timetable. The commission, in a joint statement with the National Police Service (NPS) and the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), had previously flagged Kasipul as a high-risk area for electoral violence. IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon has reiterated the commission's commitment to a free, fair, and transparent process, stating that violence and intimidation will not be tolerated.

As the constituency awaits the committee's ruling at 6:30 PM EAT today, the decision will be a critical determinant of the electoral environment leading up to the poll. The enforcement of the Electoral Code of Conduct is under intense scrutiny, with the outcome poised to set a precedent for managing electoral violence in Kenya.