NAIROBI — The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has declared a technical victory in last month’s by-elections, reporting a 99 percent success rate with its biometric kits. Yet, behind the glossy statistics lies a sobering reality: while the machines are working, the voters are staying home.

In a detailed post-mortem of the November 27 mini-polls released Tuesday, IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon painted a picture of an electoral system that has conquered its logistical demons but is now grappling with a "crisis of engagement." The by-elections, conducted across 24 electoral areas including Baringo, Magarini, and Ugunja, were widely viewed as a critical stress test for the commission’s readiness ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The Digital Win

For a commission historically plagued by technology failures, the performance of the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) was a significant redemption. CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan revealed that the kits achieved a 99 percent functionality rate in voter identification and result transmission, a stark improvement from the glitches that marred previous polls.

“The deployment of KIEMS technology, coupled with a responsive troubleshooting network, enabled efficient voter identification and result transmission,” Marjan noted during the stakeholder forum in Nairobi. He confirmed that the commission had invested Ksh 798 million (approx. $6.1 million) to ensure operational readiness, cushioning the agency from the funding delays that have historically crippled its efficiency.

This technical stability is crucial as the commission eyes a massive Ksh 7 billion (approx. $53.8 million) overhaul of its technology infrastructure, with plans to replace over 45,000 aging KIEMS kits before the next general election.

Apathy: The Silent Boycott

Despite the seamless logistics, the commission admitted that technology could not cure the growing disillusionment among the electorate. Voter turnout in key constituencies like Mbeere North and Malava remained concerningly low, a trend analysts describe as a "silent boycott."

“Voter apathy, logistical challenges, misinformation, and isolated security incidents remind us that electoral management is a continuous learning process,” Marjan warned. The apathy was palpable even in high-stakes races:

• Baringo Senate Race: Won by UDA’s Kiprono Chemetei with 55,246 votes, but amid lower-than-expected participation.
• Magarini (Kilifi): Retained by ODM’s Harrison Garama Kombe, yet the turnout did not match the intensity of the campaigns.
• Mbeere North (Embu): A narrow win for UDA’s Leonard Muthende (15,802 votes) against DP’s Newton Kariuki, decided by fewer than 500 votes.

Governance expert Dr. Linda Musyoka observes, “The IEBC has fixed the hardware of our elections, but the software—the trust and enthusiasm of the Kenyan voter—is crashing. When people feel their vote doesn't change the price of unga or school fees, they simply don't show up.”

The Misinformation Pandemic

Beyond apathy, the commission flagged the weaponization of information as a primary threat. Chairperson Ethekon highlighted a surge in "sophisticated disinformation campaigns," including fake opinion polls and viral rumors alleging the deregistration of voters.

Earlier this year, the commission was forced to debunk a viral claim that it was purging two million "ghost voters" from its register—a narrative that Ethekon says was designed to sow distrust. “We cannot run elections, manage materials, oversee polling stations, and simultaneously chase after rumors,” Ethekon stated firmly, urging political actors to desist from escalating grievances through social media falsehoods.

The Election Observation Group (ELOG) corroborated these concerns, noting that fake opinion polls accounted for 41 percent of the misinformation tracked during the campaign period. They also flagged the use of state resources in campaigns, a perennial issue that continues to tilt the playing field.

Looking to 2027

The political implications of these by-elections are already rippling through the landscape. The results solidified the dominance of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in regions like Mt. Kenya East and Western, while the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) successfully defended its Nyanza and Coastal strongholds.

As the commission prepares to spend billions on new technology, the message from the November polls is clear: efficiency is not enough. Without a strategy to re-engage a cynical public and counter the flood of digital falsehoods, the 2027 election risks being a technically perfect exercise that few Kenyans bother to participate in.

“We have built a system that works,” Ethekon concluded. “Now we must build a process that Kenyans believe in.”