Election observers have praised the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) for conducting largely free and fair by-elections on Thursday, November 27. However, significant operational flaws and security lapses have cast a shadow over the polls, prompting urgent calls for reform.

The preliminary report from the Election Observation Group (ELOG) offers a critical health check on Kenya's electoral system. While it signals a functional process, it also serves as a stark warning that systemic vulnerabilities, if left unaddressed, could undermine the credibility of the 2027 General Election.

In its assessment, ELOG rated the conduct at 93.4 per cent of polling stations as good or very good. Yet, the observer group noted this figure was “encouraging but not sufficient for full credibility,” pointing to a series of troubling incidents that marred the voting day.

Systemic Flaws Exposed

Despite the positive overall rating, the by-elections, held across 22 electoral areas, were not without significant problems. ELOG's 100 roving observers documented several critical issues that impact the sanctity of the vote and a citizen's ability to participate securely.

• **Voter Access:** A staggering 42 per cent of polling stations experienced challenges with voter access. This included voters being turned away for arriving at the wrong station, having names missing from the register, or lacking proper identification.
• **Ballot Secrecy:** The secrecy of the ballot was compromised in 15.2 per cent of observed stations, a matter ELOG described as a “significant concern.” In some cases, voters were seen photographing their marked ballots, raising fears of coercion and vote-buying.
• **Violence and Intimidation:** Incidents of violence and the presence of unauthorised individuals, including high-profile politicians, were reported in several areas, disrupting the process. The IEBC itself condemned the violence, warning that political actors involved would be held accountable.
• **Logistical Hitches:** While 83 per cent of stations opened on time, others experienced delays. Technical issues with the KIEMS kits were also reported in 1.6 per cent of stations.

A Litmus Test for 2027

These by-elections were widely seen as a litmus test for the reconstituted IEBC's preparedness for the high-stakes 2027 polls. Analysts and political leaders have emphasized that the commission has little room for complacency. The Law Society of Kenya (LSK) issued a stark warning, stating that the country risks undoing its democratic gains if electoral violence continues unchecked.

In response to the findings, ELOG has urged the IEBC to intensify voter education, enforce strict compliance with voting procedures, and take decisive action against any breaches. The group also called on the National Police Service to expedite investigations into all violent incidents.

As the final results are tallied, the focus now shifts to whether the IEBC can implement the necessary reforms. The credibility of future elections, and by extension the stability of the nation, may depend on its ability to learn from both the successes and the failures of this electoral test.