President Umaro Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau has fled to neighbouring Senegal after being ousted in a military coup on Wednesday, leaving the West African nation under the control of a new junta. His arrival in Dakar was confirmed by Senegalese authorities, following negotiations mediated by the regional bloc ECOWAS to secure his release.

The takeover derails the nation's democratic process, occurring just a day before the scheduled announcement of results from the November 23rd general election. This power grab plunges the nation into fresh uncertainty and poses a direct challenge to regional stability, a concern for partners like Kenya who have recently deepened diplomatic ties with the country.

The military, now calling itself the 'High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order', moved swiftly to consolidate power. Army Chief of Staff General Horta Inta-A Na Man has been installed as the transitional president and is expected to rule for a one-year period. The junta justified its actions by claiming it needed to thwart a "destabilisation plot" by politicians allegedly supported by drug traffickers to manipulate the vote.

Continent Unites in Condemnation

The international response has been unified and severe. The African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued strong condemnations. ECOWAS immediately suspended Guinea-Bissau from all its decision-making bodies, demanding a swift return to constitutional order and the release of the election results. AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf reiterated the bloc's "zero tolerance" for unconstitutional changes of government and called for the unconditional release of all detained officials.

This sharp rebuke from continental bodies underscores the growing impatience with military interventions that disrupt democratic governance. For Kenya, the instability hits close to home diplomatically. Key concerns for Nairobi include:

• Trade and Diplomatic Ties: In January 2025, President Embaló was in Nairobi for a state visit where he and President William Ruto pledged to strengthen bilateral relations in trade, agriculture, and education.
• Regional Security: Both leaders had committed to collaborating on peace initiatives in conflict-torn regions of the continent.
• AU Partnership: Guinea-Bissau had also endorsed Kenya's candidate for the African Union Commission Chairperson, a significant diplomatic alliance now in question.

The coup leaders have banned public protests and a tense calm reportedly hangs over the capital, Bissau. The whereabouts of other political figures, including opposition leader Fernando Dias da Costa—who, like Embaló, had claimed victory in the election—remain a point of concern.

As General Horta Inta-A Na Man begins his military-led transition, the path forward for Guinea-Bissau is fraught with challenges. The demands from ECOWAS and the AU for a return to democracy are clear, but whether the new junta will heed these calls remains uncertain.