A significant dip in global oil prices, which saw the international benchmark Brent crude trading around $63 (approx. KES 8,190) a barrel this week, has offered no respite to Kenyan households and motorists. [9, 12, 16] The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced on November 14 that pump prices will remain unchanged for the mid-November to mid-December cycle, keeping petrol in Nairobi at KES 184.52 per litre. [2, 4, 6]

This price stagnation comes as global oil supply continues to outpace demand, a trend that analysts expect to persist. [27] The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have ramped up production in a bid to regain market share, contributing to the worldwide glut. [10] The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that global supply is set to rise significantly through 2025, suggesting the low-price environment could continue. [7]

Why Aren't Kenyans Seeing the Benefit?

The core reason for the disconnect lies in Kenya's pricing structure and import agreements. While the landed cost of imported super petrol did see a slight decrease, this was offset by increases in the cost of diesel and kerosene. [5, 6] However, the final price at the pump is heavily influenced by fixed costs, including taxes and levies stipulated under the Finance Act of 2023. [4, 6]

Furthermore, a government-to-government (G-to-G) oil import deal with Gulf states has locked Kenya into predetermined costs for freight and premiums, according to industry reports. [23] This arrangement, intended to shield the country from price volatility, now prevents it from taking full advantage of the global downturn. [23] An analyst at FXPesa Kenya previously noted that while falling prices should ease pressure on the shilling and reduce pump prices, the benefits are not always immediate or fully passed on. [14]

The Numbers on the Ground

For the Kenyan consumer, the reality is a continued strain on their budgets. The cost of living remains high, and transport is a major component of daily expenditure. Here is the current situation at the pump in major cities:

• **Nairobi:** Super Petrol at KES 184.52, Diesel at KES 171.47, and Kerosene at KES 154.78. [4]
• **Mombasa:** Super Petrol at KES 181.24, Diesel at KES 168.19, and Kerosene at KES 151.49. [6]
• **Kisumu:** Super Petrol at KES 184.37, Diesel at KES 171.68, and Kerosene at KES 155.03. [5]

While the stability offers predictability, it denies Kenyans the economic relief that lower global energy costs should provide. As international markets signal a prolonged period of oversupply, pressure will likely mount on regulatory bodies to explain why local prices do not reflect this global trend. The situation remains a stark reminder that for the average Kenyan, international market dynamics are often filtered through a complex web of taxes and state agreements before they are felt at home.