A silent panic has gripped global energy markets as the Strait of Hormuz, the critical maritime artery for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, remains largely paralyzed by the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. As Brent crude prices hover near the USD 100 per barrel mark, a figure that analysts warn could climb significantly higher, governments from Nairobi to Dhaka are pivoting from free-market energy policies to desperate emergency management measures.

This escalation represents more than just a fluctuation in commodities it is a fundamental disruption to the global logistics chain. With nearly 20 million barrels of oil and associated products failing to navigate the Middle East chokehold daily, countries that rely heavily on energy imports are now facing a stark choice: implement strict rationing to preserve reserves or watch their domestic economies buckle under the weight of hyper-inflation and supply chain collapse. The stakes are immense, as the crisis threatens to trigger a global stagflationary shock, hitting developing economies with the force of a tectonic shift.

The Global Scramble for Energy Security

The response to the fuel crunch has been swift, uneven, and in some cases, draconian. In Europe, Slovenia has become the first European Union nation to officially implement fuel rationing to stem the tide of panic buying, capping private vehicle purchases at 50 litres per day while limiting businesses to 200 litres. The move reflects a broader desperation as nations scramble to prevent "fuel tourism"—where drivers cross borders to exploit price disparities—from emptying domestic stocks.

In South Asia, the situation is even more precarious. Sri Lanka, still reeling from past fiscal instability, has declared every Wednesday a public holiday for government institutions to curb transportation demand. Bangladesh, a manufacturing powerhouse that fuels global garment exports, has shuttered university campuses and suspended specific industrial activities to prioritize dwindling gas supplies for essential power generation. These measures, while effective in the short term, underscore the profound vulnerability of emerging markets to geopolitical tremors thousands of kilometers away.

• Slovenia: Mandatory daily caps (50L for private, 200L for commercial).
• Sri Lanka: Implementation of a four-day work week to conserve gasoline.
• Bangladesh: National shutdown of university campuses to reduce electricity consumption.
• Kenya: Regulatory price freeze (EPRA) amid a reported 20% shortage at retail outlets.

The Kenyan Reality: A Market on Edge

In Nairobi, the anxiety is palpable. While the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) has maintained maximum retail prices for petroleum products through mid-April—with Super Petrol at KES 178.28, Diesel at KES 166.54, and Kerosene at KES 152.78 per litre—the policy is being tested by reality on the ground. Retailers are reporting shortages at approximately 20 per cent of fuel stations across the country, a phenomenon exacerbated by aggressive panic buying and localized hoarding by dealers anticipating future price hikes.

The impact is cascading into the productive sectors. Kenya’s vital floriculture industry, which anchors much of the nation’s export revenue, is bleeding capital. The Kenya Flower Council has reported losses exceeding USD 4.2 million (approximately KES 546 million) over the last three weeks alone, a direct result of disrupted shipping routes and reduced demand in Middle Eastern markets. For a smallholder farmer in Kajiado or a logistics firm in Mombasa, the crisis is not an abstract market statistic it is an immediate threat to operational viability.

The Inflationary Ripple Effect

Economists warn that the current energy shock is distinct from previous cycles due to its multi-layered nature. Beyond just the price of petrol at the pump, the disruption of refined product flows is impacting the cost of nitrogen-based fertilizers and industrial chemicals, creating a secondary inflation wave in food production. In the Euro area and parts of East Africa, these costs are being passed directly to consumers, pushing already strained household budgets to the breaking point.

The policy trade-offs facing central banks are becoming increasingly narrow. Tightening monetary policy to combat inflation now risks exacerbating a recession, yet doing nothing leaves the currency vulnerable to the kind of rapid depreciation seen in other emerging markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged coordinated releases of emergency strategic reserves, but for many nations in the Global South, these reserves are either non-existent or insufficient to bridge a conflict of indefinite duration.

Navigating the Unknown

As the conflict in the Middle East enters its second month, the focus for global leaders is shifting from short-term mitigation to long-term survival strategies. The era of cheap, reliable energy transit appears to be in an indefinite hiatus, forcing a structural reassessment of national energy independence. Whether this crisis leads to a permanent shift toward diversified, localized energy sources or deeper cycles of protectionism will depend on the duration of the current hostilities.

For the average citizen, the immediate future holds continued volatility. Until global powers can secure the maritime routes or stabilize supply chains, the world will remain in a state of high-alert energy governance. The question is no longer whether prices will remain high, but how much longer the global economy can endure the cost of these fragmented supply lines before the current administrative bandages, such as rationing and price caps, are torn away by the raw demand of a hungry global market.