Political Awakening Meets Institutional Doubt

NAIROBI, KENYA – A groundbreaking study has revealed a significant surge in political consciousness among Kenya's Generation Z, with nearly seven in ten young people expressing their intention to vote in the next general election. This wave of engagement, catalysed by the contentious 2024 Finance Bill protests, signals the highest level of youth political interest in over a decade. However, this unprecedented enthusiasm is running headlong into a deep-seated crisis of confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), a reality that could fundamentally reshape Kenya's political trajectory towards 2027.

The new report from research firm Odipo Dev, conducted in the wake of the youth-led nationwide demonstrations, paints a picture of a generation that is politically awakened but deeply cynical about the integrity of the democratic process. This dynamic emerges as the nation's political landscape undergoes its own seismic shifts, particularly within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which is navigating a complex succession battle following the death of its long-time leader, Raila Odinga, on October 15, 2025. The party is now grappling with internal divisions over its future direction, a struggle that highlights the broader realignments occurring across Kenyan politics.

The Heart of the Matter: A Crisis of Faith

The core finding of the Odipo Dev study is the paradox of high civic energy and low institutional trust. While the 2024 protests demonstrated Gen Z's capacity for mass mobilization, transforming online dissent into potent street-level activism, this energy is not translating into faith in the ballot box. According to youth and media researcher Winny Jerotich, interviews with young Kenyans reveal a pervasive belief that the IEBC is compromised by political forces and that their votes will ultimately not be counted. This sentiment is a primary factor stalling the rise of a cohesive new political force, despite the clear appetite for change.

This distrust is not unfounded in the public's mind. A September 2025 survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) found that 48% of all Kenyans have no confidence in the IEBC's ability to deliver a free and fair election. For many young people, the reasons for disengagement have shifted from general apathy to specific concerns about institutional integrity, unfulfilled promises by politicians, and opaque electoral processes. This skepticism is fueling alarmingly low voter registration numbers. Despite the IEBC targeting 6.3 million new voters, turnout for registration drives has been minimal, with some reports indicating that only tens of thousands have signed up.

Implications for 2027 and Beyond

The disconnect between Gen Z's activism and their participation in formal electoral processes poses a critical challenge for Kenya. The IEBC has acknowledged the crisis, with CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan urging youth to use the ballot to effect change rather than relying solely on protests. The commission has pledged to enhance voter education and work with government agencies to clear bottlenecks in issuing national ID cards, a key barrier to registration. However, activists argue that the problem runs deeper than logistics, citing a history of disputed elections and a perception that leaders are not held accountable.

The 2024 Finance Bill protests were a watershed moment, proving that Gen Z could organize as a leaderless, non-tribal movement to influence national policy. This has fundamentally altered the political calculus. Yet, if this powerful demographic remains alienated from the electoral system, their energy could be channeled into further street-level confrontations or widespread disillusionment. Analysts warn that without rebuilding trust, the high voter turnout potential recorded since 2013 may not be realized. As the country moves towards the first presidential election in decades without Raila Odinga on the ballot, the question of whether Gen Z's digital-first activism will translate into a decisive electoral force remains the most critical and uncertain factor in Kenya's political future.