The delicate ceasefire in Gaza is under significant strain after Israel announced a reduction in humanitarian aid and postponed the opening of the Rafah border crossing. This decision, made on Tuesday, October 14, 2025, East Africa Time (EAT), follows accusations by Israel that Hamas is deliberately delaying the return of all hostage remains as per the US-brokered agreement.

Hamas, the militant group, has countered these claims, stating that it faces considerable obstacles in locating and retrieving all burial sites. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which is facilitating the transfers, has acknowledged the immense challenges involved in finding bodies amidst the extensive rubble in Gaza, indicating the process could take days or even weeks.

Historical and Political Context

The current ceasefire agreement, brokered by former US President Donald Trump, led to the release of 20 living Israeli hostages by Hamas on Monday, October 13, 2025, EAT. In exchange, nearly 2,000 Palestinians were released from Israeli custody, and Israel initiated a partial withdrawal from Gaza. This agreement was seen as a critical step towards de-escalation and a potential path to lasting peace in the region, which has been plagued by decades of conflict.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

The ceasefire agreement included provisions for the unimpeded flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza and the return of all hostage remains. Israel's decision to halve the number of aid trucks allowed into Gaza to 300 daily and to postpone the opening of the Rafah crossing are considered violations of this agreement. These actions have drawn international concern regarding adherence to the terms of the truce and the implications for the civilian population in Gaza.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

On Tuesday night, Hamas transferred the remains of four hostages to the ICRC, bringing the total number of bodies returned to eight. Three of these four bodies were identified on Wednesday morning as Ouriel Baruch, Tamir Nimrodi, and Eitan Levy. Former President Trump has publicly urged Hamas to release the remaining bodies, emphasizing its necessity for the next phase of the Gaza plan.

Evidence and Data

• Aid Reduction: Israel has reduced the number of aid trucks entering Gaza from 600 to 300 per day.
• Hostage Remains: As of Wednesday, October 15, 2025, EAT, eight bodies of hostages have been returned by Hamas, with 20 still unaccounted for.
• Rafah Crossing: The planned opening of the Rafah border crossing for aid has been postponed.

Risks and Implications

The current dispute poses a significant risk to the fragile ceasefire, potentially jeopardizing further steps towards a lasting peace. A breakdown of the agreement could lead to renewed hostilities, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and impacting regional stability. For Kenya, continued instability in the Middle East can have economic repercussions, including fuel price volatility and potential disruptions to international trade routes. Additionally, the safety and welfare of Kenyans living and working in the region remain a concern.

Uncertainties and Controversies

The primary point of contention revolves around the pace and feasibility of returning all hostage remains. While Israel accuses Hamas of deliberate delays, Hamas cites practical difficulties in locating burial sites. The ICRC's assessment supports the complexity of the task, highlighting the challenge of finding bodies in a war-torn environment. This divergence in perspectives creates uncertainty about the immediate future of the ceasefire.

Timeline and Next Steps

The initial phase of the ceasefire saw the exchange of living hostages and prisoners. The current phase, focusing on the return of all remains, is now facing significant hurdles. International mediators are likely to intensify efforts to resolve the dispute and ensure adherence to the agreement's terms.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely watching for any developments regarding the return of the remaining hostage bodies and the resumption of full humanitarian aid flows into Gaza. The actions and statements of key international players, particularly the United States, will be crucial in navigating this delicate period. The humanitarian situation in Gaza will also remain a critical focus.