In Gaza, the grim reality of two years of conflict continues to unfold as residents, like Ghali Khadr, sift through the debris of destroyed homes with their bare hands, desperately searching for the remains of family members. Khadr's poignant search for his parents, buried after an Israeli airstrike, yielded only fragments, a testament to the devastating human cost of the conflict. His father, a retired ambulance driver, was known for his strong will and optimism, a memory now intertwined with the rubble.

The current ceasefire, which commenced on Thursday, October 9, 2025, marks a critical, albeit fragile, pause in hostilities. This agreement, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, includes provisions for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas, and the facilitation of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Historical and Political Context

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has deep historical roots, with the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent displacement of Palestinians. Kenya has historically maintained diplomatic relations with both Israel and Palestine, with Palestine having an embassy in Nairobi. Kenya officially recognized Palestinian statehood in May 1989.

Kenya's foreign policy on the conflict has often sought a balanced approach, advocating for a two-state solution. However, its stance has at times drawn scrutiny. Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, President William Ruto initially condemned the attacks and expressed solidarity with Israel. This position was later clarified by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasizing condemnation of terrorism while reaffirming support for a peaceful resolution and expressing concern over disproportionate retaliatory attacks by Israel.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

Kenya's support for a two-state solution aligns with United Nations resolutions. The Kenyan government, through the Office of the Prime Cabinet Secretary and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora, officially welcomed the first phase of the ceasefire agreement on Thursday, October 9, 2025, emphasizing its role in easing human suffering.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

Public opinion in Kenya regarding the conflict is divided. While some Kenyans, particularly within civil society and activist groups, express strong solidarity with the Palestinian cause, drawing parallels to Africa's own struggles against colonialism, others view Israel as a crucial ally in counter-terrorism efforts. For instance, the Muslim community in Kenya has actively raised funds, such as KES 5.4 million for Udhiyah (Qurbani) in Gaza, demonstrating tangible support for Palestinians.

Evidence and Data

• Casualties: Over 67,600 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 2023, according to Gaza's Health Ministry.
• Hostages: As of Sunday, October 12, 2025, 48 hostages (both living and dead) were still believed to be in Gaza. Israel expects 20 living hostages to be released on Monday, October 13, 2025.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Over half a million people in the Gaza Strip face catastrophic food insecurity, with more than 132,000 children under five at risk of death from acute malnutrition by June 2026.
• Aid: Since border crossings reopened on May 21, 2025, over 1,800 trucks of food have been dispatched to Gaza, a fraction of the 62,000 metric tons required monthly.

Risks and Implications for Kenya

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East poses several risks for Kenya. Economically, it can lead to increased oil prices, impacting fuel costs in Kenya, and a strengthening of the US dollar against the Kenyan shilling. Security-wise, the conflict risks reigniting regional instability and terrorism, with Kenya's cooperation with Western allies potentially making it a target for radical groups.

Unknowns and Controversies

While the first phase of the ceasefire has been approved, details on how it integrates into a broader, lasting peace plan remain unclear. The return of the remains of all deceased hostages is also uncertain, with one ceasefire document containing stipulations for remains not returned within 72 hours.

Timeline and Next Steps

The ceasefire became effective on Thursday, October 10, 2025. US President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in Israel on Monday, October 13, 2025, before heading to Egypt for a Gaza peace summit co-hosted with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. This summit, involving over 20 world leaders, aims to end the war and foster peace and stability in the Middle East.

What to Watch

The immediate focus will be on the successful exchange of hostages and prisoners, and the sustained delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The outcomes of the Sharm El-Sheikh peace summit and subsequent negotiations will be crucial in determining the path towards a lasting resolution and the implementation of a two-state solution. Kenya's continued diplomatic engagement and humanitarian support will also be closely watched.