The Mbeere North constituency by-election, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, has escalated into a fiercely contested proxy war, pitting former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua against his successor, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. The vote in the Embu County constituency is widely seen by political observers as a critical measure of political dominance in the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region following a significant political fallout between President William Ruto and his former deputy.

The parliamentary seat became vacant after President Ruto appointed its Member of Parliament, Geoffrey Ruku, as the Cabinet Secretary for Public Service, Human Capital Development and Special Programmes in April 2025. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) subsequently gazetted Thursday, November 27, 2025, as the date for this and 23 other by-elections across the country. The official campaign period, which began on October 8, is set to conclude on Monday, November 24, 2025.

The Main Contenders

The race has narrowed into a two-horse race between Leonard Wamuthende of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Newton Kariuki (popularly known as Karish) of the Democratic Party (DP). A recent opinion poll conducted by Mizani Africa between November 17 and 19 showed an exceptionally tight contest, with Wamuthende holding a narrow lead of 44.6% against Kariuki's 42.4%, a difference that falls within the survey's margin of error.

Deputy President Kindiki, alongside CS Ruku and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire, is leading the UDA campaign, framing a vote for Wamuthende as a vote for continued government development projects. Prof. Kindiki has been actively campaigning, highlighting the government's commitment to tarmacking key roads and building modern markets in the constituency, and has urged residents not to be “enticed into the opposition.”

On the other side, Gachagua, now the leader of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), has thrown his weight behind Kariuki. His campaign has been characterized by intensive grassroots mobilization, including door-to-door visits, where he has argued that the by-election is an opportunity for the residents to resist the ruling party's influence. Gachagua is supported by a united opposition front that includes leaders like former Attorney-General Justin Muturi and DAP-Kenya's Eugene Wamalwa.

A Test of Political Might

The initial input for this story incorrectly identified Rigathi Gachagua as the "Former Deputy President." This is factually correct; Gachagua was impeached in October 2024 and succeeded by Kithure Kindiki. This political context is central to the by-election's significance. The contest is viewed as a direct confrontation between Kindiki, representing the establishment, and Gachagua, who is seeking to solidify his influence as a regional kingpin outside of the government.

Both leaders have vowed to remain camped in the semi-arid constituency until the election is decided, deploying significant political capital. Gachagua has framed the election as the first step in a broader campaign to make Dr. Ruto a one-term president in the 2027 general election. The high-level political involvement has, according to some residents, overshadowed pressing local issues such as poor roads, water scarcity, and inadequate electrification.

Embu County security officials have issued warnings against potential violence after videos of individuals making threats circulated on social media. County Commissioner Jack Obuo confirmed on November 13, 2025, that four individuals had been summoned for questioning regarding inflammatory statements made during Gachagua's recent visit. As polling day approaches, the focus remains on whether the election will be a referendum on national political figures or a decision based on local development needs.