Fred Ogola Predicts Decline in Raila’s Influence as Politics Shift to Economics

Nyeri, Kenya — September 24, 2025, 14:45 EAT

Analyst Fred Ogola has forecast a waning relevance for Raila Odinga by 2027, arguing that Kenya’s politics are evolving beyond tribal mobilization into economic agendas and issue-based campaigning.

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Speaking during a television interview in Nyeri, Ogola asserted that the traditional culture of kinship politics is fading, and future electoral success will increasingly hinge on economic mobilization rather than identity appeals.

“The culture of kinship is dying… we are moving away from tribal politics… we are going to have economic mobilisation rather than political,” Ogola stated.

He warned that Raila’s past dominance—anchored in regional and identity loyalties—may not withstand a political landscape where voters demand concrete economic solutions.

Context in Brief

• Raila’s historical appeal: Over decades, Raila Odinga has built his support base through strong rooting in Nyanza, Luo communities, and Pan-ethnic alliances like CORD and Azimio.

• Shifting voter priorities: In recent elections, urban, youth, and middle-class electorates have placed increasing weight on issues like jobs, cost of living, debt, infrastructure, and services.

• Opposition realignment: Many opposition parties and coalitions are recalibrating strategies to appeal to issue voters beyond ethnic blocs.

Analysis & Implication

Strengths & Constraints

• Advantage in base politics: Raila continues to enjoy deep loyalty in his strongholds, making an abrupt decline unlikely without significant disruption.

• Need for reinvention: To remain competitive, Raila and his allies may need to reframe messaging around performance, governance, and economic transformation, not just identity.

• Risk of fragmentation: As newer leaders with economic credentials emerge, Raila’s dominance could face challenges from within opposition ranks

Potential Scenarios

• Gradual decline: Raila’s influence weakens in swing counties and among younger voters while maintaining core support in traditional areas.

• Coalition leverage: He may retain relevance by negotiating key positions or leveraging his coalition power, even as his personal influence ebbs.

• Comeback strategy: If he successfully repositions his agenda to economics and governance, he may steady or partially reclaim influence.

What We Don’t Know Yet

• Which economic issues will resonate strongest in different regions (jobs, debt relief, agriculture, manufacturing).

• How Raila’s inner circle is responding to these forecasts — whether they are already shifting strategy.

• The extent to which rising leaders (young, technocratic, issue-based) will challenge Raila internally.

• Whether his base will abandon identity alignment for economic promises.