Kenya’s economic backbone has suffered a worrying fracture. New data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reveals that the agricultural sector grew by a sluggish 3.2% in the third quarter of last year—the slowest rate in nearly three years.

This stagnation is a red flag for a country where agriculture contributes 25% of GDP and employs 40% of the population. The slump contradicts the government’s narrative of a "fertilizer-subsidized boom" and raises urgent questions about the efficacy of the Bottom-Up support to farmers.

Causes of the Slump

Experts point to a "perfect storm" of factors that have battered the farmer:

• Climate Shocks: The erratic weather patterns—swinging from prolonged drought to devastating El Niño floods—have disrupted planting cycles for maize and tea.
• Input Costs: Despite subsidies, the cost of fuel and certified seeds remains prohibitively high for small-scale farmers, squeezing margins.
• Market Access: The collapse of sugar millers and the chaos in the coffee sector have demoralized farmers in Western and Central Kenya, leading to abandoned acreage.

The Ripple Effect

When agriculture sneezes, the Kenyan economy catches a cold. The slowdown has triggered food inflation, hitting the urban poor hardest. Prices of vegetables and staples like unga remain stubborn.

Wake Up Call

The data suggests that subsidies alone are not a silver bullet. The sector needs structural reform—irrigation, extension services, and guaranteed minimum returns. Without a quick turnaround, the 2026 food security outlook remains grim.