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KNBS data shows Kenya’s agricultural sector growth slowed to 3.2% in Q3, raising alarms over food security and the impact of climate shocks on the economy.
Kenya’s economic backbone has suffered a worrying fracture. New data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reveals that the agricultural sector grew by a sluggish 3.2% in the third quarter of last year—the slowest rate in nearly three years.
This stagnation is a red flag for a country where agriculture contributes 25% of GDP and employs 40% of the population. The slump contradicts the government’s narrative of a "fertilizer-subsidized boom" and raises urgent questions about the efficacy of the Bottom-Up support to farmers.
Experts point to a "perfect storm" of factors that have battered the farmer:
When agriculture sneezes, the Kenyan economy catches a cold. The slowdown has triggered food inflation, hitting the urban poor hardest. Prices of vegetables and staples like unga remain stubborn.
The data suggests that subsidies alone are not a silver bullet. The sector needs structural reform—irrigation, extension services, and guaranteed minimum returns. Without a quick turnaround, the 2026 food security outlook remains grim.
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