Esther Njeri walks through her smallholder farm in Karati, Naivasha, the cracked earth crunching under her feet. Her withered crops are a stark illustration of a nationwide crisis unfolding across Kenya, as the widespread failure of the October to December 2025 short rains converges with stubborn inflation to create a perfect storm for food prices.

For months, farmers and pastoralists, particularly in Kenya's Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), have been grappling with drier-than-normal conditions. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has issued stark warnings, projecting that the significantly below-average short rains, driven by La Niña conditions, will hinder the recovery of rangeland and lead to poor crop yields. This is expected to push an estimated 3 to 3.5 million Kenyans into need of humanitarian food assistance by May 2026.

A Tale of Two Forecasts

The Kenya Meteorological Department's forecasts throughout November 2025 have painted a complex picture. While an early November outlook suggested continued rains in western and central regions, by late November, advisories shifted to predict sunny and dry conditions for most of the country, with only isolated showers in a few areas. This rainfall has been described as unevenly distributed and punctuated by intermittent dry spells, arriving too late for many farmers whose crops had already wilted. The result is a projected short rains harvest that could be up to 30 percent lower than normal, forcing households to rely on markets much earlier than usual.

The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) continues to monitor the situation, with its Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) tracking the deteriorating conditions. Pastoral areas such as Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera are already experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, with below-average incomes and declining livestock productivity severely limiting access to food. These conditions are projected to expand into marginal agricultural areas like Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu by early 2026.

Inflation Compounds the Misery

The climate shock comes on top of persistent economic pressures. While President William Ruto, in his State of the Nation address on Thursday, 20 November 2025, stated that the cost of a 2kg packet of maize flour had dropped significantly since 2022, the latest available data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) presents a more nuanced reality for consumers. According to Trading Economics, the food inflation rate for October 2025 stood at 8.0 percent year-over-year. Data from the Central Bank of Kenya, citing KNBS, showed the overall 12-month inflation rate for October 2025 was 4.56 percent.

Although overall inflation remains within the government's target band, the prices of specific food items have remained volatile. For instance, data from September 2025 showed that while maize flour prices had slightly decreased month-on-month, sugar was 20.4% more expensive than in the same period in 2024. With a poor harvest now imminent, economists warn that these prices are set to climb further, severely constraining the purchasing power of already struggling households.

Government Response and Future Outlook

The Kenyan government has acknowledged the long-term challenges. The Ministry of Agriculture has initiated the development of a national food security master plan and allocated Ksh 47.6 billion in the 2025/26 budget for agricultural transformation, including Ksh 8 billion for fertilizer subsidies. In March 2025, the government also launched the Kenya Food and Nutrition Resilience Program (KFNRP), a 10-year initiative aiming to support 5 million people across 24 counties.

However, these long-term strategies offer little immediate relief to farmers like Esther Njeri. As the country heads into the typically dry period of January and February 2026, the combined impact of crop failure and high food prices is expected to deepen. Agricultural experts and humanitarian agencies are calling for urgent interventions to support vulnerable communities, including scaling up cash transfers and providing emergency livestock feed, to mitigate the worst effects of the looming food crisis. With the next major rainy season not due until March 2026, the coming months will be a critical test of Kenya's resilience to climate and economic shocks.