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Kenya's year-on-year inflation rate climbed to 4.6% in September 2025, a slight increase from 4.5% recorded in August. This rise, announced by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, marks the third consecutive monthly acceleration. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 146.21 in August to 146.56 in September, reflecting a 0.2% month-on-month inflation.

Context

The primary drivers of this inflationary pressure were increases in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, and housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels. These three categories collectively account for over 57% of the total weight in the CPI's 13 major expenditure categories. Food and non-alcoholic beverages alone saw an 8.4% annual increase and contribute 33% to the CPI weight, significantly impacting overall inflation. Transport costs rose by 4.0% year-on-year, while housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 1.4%.

Despite the overall increase, the inflation rate remains within the Central Bank of Kenya's (CBK) target range of 2.5% to 7.5%. In August, the CBK had cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, citing room for further monetary policy easing as inflation was well within its target.

Stakeholders

Analysts suggest that this development could influence near-term public debate and policy execution. Stakeholders are urging clarity on timelines, costs, and safeguards related to economic policies. The rising cost of living continues to be a concern for Kenyan households.

Evidence/Data

• Annual Inflation (September 2025): 4.6%
• Annual Inflation (August 2025): 4.5%
• Month-on-Month Inflation (September 2025): 0.2%
• Overall CPI (September 2025): 146.56
• Overall CPI (August 2025): 146.21
• Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Annual Increase: 8.4%
• Transport Costs Annual Increase: 4.0%
• Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels Annual Increase: 1.4%
• Core Inflation (excluding food and fuel): 3.8% (September 2025)
• CBK Inflation Target Range: 2.5% to 7.5%
• Selected Food Price Increases (September 2025): Oranges (5.6%), Mangoes (3.0%), Cabbages (2.7%), Potatoes (2.6%), Tomatoes (1.2%)
• Selected Food Price Decreases (September 2025): Maize grain (3.9% to KSh 68.14/kg), Sifted maize flour (3.0% to KSh 152.28/2kg), Kale (1.0% to KSh 92.48/kg), Sugar (0.7% to KSh 185.21/kg)

Risks/Implications

The persistent rise in food and fuel prices poses a significant risk to household budgets, particularly for low-income earners. While overall inflation remains within the CBK's target, the upward trend in essential commodity prices could erode purchasing power and increase the cost of living. The ripple effects of elevated transport costs, driven by higher fuel prices, extend throughout the economy, impacting the cost of moving agricultural products and other goods to market.

What to Watch

Economists and the public will be closely watching the government's response to these inflationary pressures. Future monetary policy decisions by the Central Bank of Kenya, particularly regarding interest rates, will be crucial in managing inflation while supporting economic growth. The performance of key sectors like agriculture, transportation, and finance will also be important indicators.