The engines roared to life at Yas Marina on Friday, signaling the start of the most electric Formula 1 finale in recent memory, with Lando Norris landing the first psychological blow against reigning champion Max Verstappen. In a season that has captivated motorsport enthusiasts globally—including the growing legion of fans in Nairobi—the stakes could not be higher.

With only 12 points separating the Briton from the Dutchman, Friday’s practice session was not merely a technical exercise; it was a declaration of intent. Norris’ McLaren topped the timesheets, outpacing Verstappen’s Red Bull by 0.363 seconds—a significant margin in a sport often measured in thousandths of a second.

The Mathematics of Victory

For Kenyan fans calculating the odds ahead of Sunday's viewing parties, the equation is tense but clear. Norris holds the upper hand. If the McLaren driver finishes on the podium, he secures his maiden World Championship, rendering Verstappen's performance irrelevant.

However, analysts note that practice times can be deceptive. While Norris dominated the single-lap pace, Verstappen’s race simulation runs—where cars run with heavy fuel loads to mimic Sunday's conditions—were significantly more competitive. The four-time champion is chasing a fifth consecutive title, a feat that requires him to overcome the points deficit through aggressive strategy.

Verstappen's path to the trophy involves specific, high-pressure scenarios:

• The Win Scenario: Verstappen must win the race with Norris finishing fourth or lower.
• The Runner-Up Scenario: If Verstappen finishes second, he needs Norris to finish eighth or lower.

Team Orders and the Piastri Factor

The championship narrative is further complicated by the presence of Oscar Piastri. The Australian, currently third in the standings and 16 points adrift of his teammate Norris, remains a mathematical contender, though his path to the title is narrow. His Friday performance was less than ideal, finishing 11th fastest after failing to secure a clean lap on the soft tyres.

McLaren management has signaled a pragmatic approach to the weekend. Sources within the team have indicated that if Piastri falls out of contention during the race, he will be instructed to support Norris. This potential use of team orders adds a layer of strategic intrigue that could decide the championship.

"The maths are complicated for Verstappen," observers noted at the track, emphasizing that while the Red Bull driver has the experience of previous title deciders, the momentum currently sits in the McLaren garage.

As the sun sets over Abu Dhabi on Sunday, the 2025 season will conclude not just with a chequered flag, but with the crowning of a king in one of the tightest battles the sport has ever seen.