The global retreat from aggressive climate pledges accelerated Tuesday as ExxonMobil announced a sharp reduction in its low-carbon investment strategy, prioritizing immediate shareholder returns over speculative green ventures.

For Kenya, a nation on the frontlines of the climate crisis yet dependent on fuel imports, this signal from the world’s largest private oil explorer suggests the era of fossil fuels is far from over. It hints at a cooling of the global capital flows previously expected to drive the energy transition in developing markets.

A Strategic Retreat

The Texas-based energy titan revealed it now plans to spend approximately $20 billion (approx. KES 2.6 trillion) on low-emission investments between 2025 and 2030. This marks a significant departure from the outlook provided just twelve months ago.

In last December's corporate plan, the company had forecasted spending $30 billion (approx. KES 3.9 trillion) over the same period. The $10 billion (approx. KES 1.3 trillion) reduction effectively wipes out a third of the company's medium-term green budget.

ExxonMobil attributed the pullback to market realities. In a press release, the company noted that future investments in low-carbon solutions "will continue to be contingent on the development of supportive policy and broader market formation."

The statement emphasized the need to balance risks with opportunities to "ensure strong returns and delivery of shareholder value," a clear indication that the company is unwilling to subsidize green projects that do not compete financially with traditional oil extraction.

Fossil Fuels Remain King

Despite the global narrative shifting toward renewables, ExxonMobil’s ledger tells a different story. The low-carbon ventures represent a fraction of the company's overall capital budget, which remains heavily tilted toward conventional fossil fuels.

According to the updated corporate plan:

• The total annual capital budget will range between $27 billion and $32 billion (approx. KES 3.5 trillion to KES 4.1 trillion).
• The majority of this capital is earmarked for oil and gas exploration and production.
• Green investments are treated as supplementary rather than core business drivers.

The company’s remaining low-carbon focus is largely centered on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a technology that allows for continued fossil fuel use by trapping emissions. An ExxonMobil presentation highlighted seven CCS projects currently under development along the US Gulf Coast.

These projects involve removing carbon dioxide from industrial sites, transporting it via pipelines, and injecting it deep underground—a solution that critics argue prolongs the life of the oil industry rather than replacing it.

As major Western energy firms recalibrate their strategies to favor short-term profitability over long-term climate goals, the ripple effects will likely slow the pace of global decarbonization, leaving nations like Kenya to navigate a warming world with less external support than anticipated.