European nations are intensifying efforts to shape a post-war settlement for Ukraine, floating proposals for an international "reassurance force" and debating the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Kyiv's reconstruction, even as diplomatic relations with Moscow deteriorate sharply. The developments come amid a U.S.-led push for a peace deal, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists Moscow, not Kyiv, must face pressure to end the war.

French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, that a potential post-war deployment could include soldiers from France, the United Kingdom, and Turkey. This "reassurance force" would operate under an intergovernmental coalition, not NATO, and would be stationed in rear areas like Kyiv or Odesa for security and training missions once a peace agreement is signed. Turkey's defence ministry stated on Thursday, November 27, that any such deployment is contingent on a prior ceasefire and a clearly defined mission mandate. Ankara has consistently maintained a mediatory role, balancing its NATO membership with ties to both Kyiv and Moscow.

President Zelenskyy, addressing the 'Coalition of the Willing' allies, stressed that Ukraine is ready to advance a U.S.-backed peace framework but will not be pressured into territorial concessions. He urged European leaders to finalize the structure for the reassurance force and maintain support for Kyiv.

Diplomatic Fallout and Military Buildup

The diplomatic climate has grown more toxic. On Thursday, November 27, Russia's foreign ministry announced it would close the Polish consulate general in Irkutsk from December 30. This was a direct retaliation for Poland's decision earlier in the month to shut the Russian consulate in Gdańsk. Warsaw attributed its move to an act of "state terrorism," blaming Russian intelligence services for a rail sabotage attack on a line used to supply Ukraine.

Simultaneously, European nations are significantly bolstering their own defence capabilities. The European Union is fast-tracking plans to use an estimated €140 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets to provide a loan for Ukraine, a move gaining urgency amid debates over a separate U.S. proposal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that a legal text is being prepared, stating she cannot see a scenario where only European taxpayers foot the bill. This financial strategy is part of a broader push for European rearmament, with EU defence budgets expected to reach €392 billion in 2025, nearly double the 2021 figure.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While the conflict is geographically distant, its economic and geopolitical shockwaves continue to affect Kenya. The Kenyan government maintains an official stance of neutrality, advocating for a diplomatic solution based on the UN Charter. President William Ruto has emphasized that the war has disrupted global supply chains, leading to higher costs for essential goods in Kenya, including fuel, fertilizer, and grains.

The conflict has also had a direct, if unexpected, impact on Kenyan citizens. On November 12, 2025, Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi confirmed that over 200 Kenyan nationals are believed to be fighting for Russia, often lured by deceptive job offers. This has created a complex diplomatic challenge for Nairobi, which is engaging with both Russian and Ukrainian authorities to address the situation while seeking a formal labor agreement with Moscow to prevent future exploitation.

The continued instability in Europe and its impact on global markets for energy and food remain a significant concern for East Africa. The rising commodity prices exacerbate existing economic pressures and food security challenges across the region. As European powers recalibrate their security and foreign policy, the long-term consequences for global trade, international law, and partnerships with African nations will require close monitoring from Nairobi and regional bodies.