A wave of anxiety is sweeping across Europe, with a new survey revealing nearly half its citizens view Donald Trump as an enemy of the continent. The poll underscores a profound sense of vulnerability, as most Europeans also believe their nations are incapable of self-defence against a potential Russian attack.

For Kenya, this instability among its key trading and security partners is not a distant headline; it's a direct challenge to our economic future. A distracted and divided Europe, potentially at odds with its traditional American ally, could reshape global partnerships, impacting everything from trade agreements to regional security initiatives that are vital for East Africa's stability.

The Trump Factor: A Hostile Force?

The survey, conducted by the Paris-based platform Le Grand Continent and polling agency Cluster17, found that an average of 48% of people across nine EU nations see Donald Trump as an outright foe. This perception is particularly strong in Belgium (62%) and France (57%), signaling a hardened stance against "Trumpism," which is increasingly viewed as a hostile force. Another poll noted that 63% of Europeans believe Trump's election makes the world less safe.

This sentiment has tangible consequences. While many Europeans still see the relationship with the U.S. as strategically important, the trust has eroded. A staggering 70% of those surveyed believe the European Union must rely solely on its own forces for its security and defense, a clear vote of no-confidence in depending on a Trump-led United States.

Shadow of War Looms Large

The anxiety is not limited to political alliances. The risk of a direct military conflict with Russia is now a mainstream fear. Key findings from the poll highlight this growing dread:

• A majority (51%) feel the risk of open war with Russia in the coming years is high.
• An additional 18% consider that risk to be "very high."
• Confidence in national defense is critically low, with 69% of respondents believing their country cannot adequately defend itself against Russian aggression.

This widespread feeling of insecurity is fueling calls for greater European military cooperation. According to a recent Eurobarometer poll, 77% of EU citizens favour a common defence and security policy, with 80% believing that cooperation on defence matters should be increased.

Why This Matters on Nairobi's Streets

The European Union is Kenya's largest export destination. In 2022, trade between the two partners reached €3.3 billion (approx. KES 515 billion), and the recently signed Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) is set to deepen these ties. This relationship supports hundreds of thousands of Kenyan jobs, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing.

A Europe consumed by internal anxieties and external threats is a less predictable partner. Geopolitical instability could disrupt these vital trade flows and shift focus away from development and investment partnerships in Africa. As Kenya diversifies its markets, a stable and reliable EU remains a cornerstone of its economic strategy.

As Jean-Yves Dormagen, founder of the polling agency, noted, the survey portrays a "Europe that is anxious, that is deeply aware of its vulnerabilities and that is struggling to project itself positively into the future." For Kenya, the critical question is how to navigate the uncertainty as our partners abroad grapple with a future they increasingly fear.