A wave of suspected drone incursions has disrupted air travel and raised national security alarms across Europe, with leaders pointing to Russia's alleged 'hybrid war' tactics. The incidents, which have seen airports temporarily shut down and flights diverted, underscore a growing vulnerability in European airspace and critical infrastructure.

On Thursday, October 2, 2025, Munich International Airport in Germany was forced to halt flight operations following multiple unconfirmed drone sightings in its airspace. This disruption led to the cancellation of 17 outbound flights and the diversion of 15 incoming flights, affecting nearly 3,000 passengers. Authorities restricted departures and suspended all takeoffs and landings until 5:00 AM local time the following morning. Despite extensive aerial searches by federal police, no drone was recovered or positively identified.

This incident in Munich is not isolated. Over recent weeks and months, several other European nations, including Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Estonia, and Lithuania, have reported mysterious drone overflights. Some of these incidents have also led to airport closures and disruptions near sensitive military sites.

Historical and Political Context

The term 'hybrid war' has gained prominence in Western military theory since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and its subsequent support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. This strategy combines conventional military operations with covert sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion, operating below the threshold of open conflict to weaken adversaries.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday, October 8, 2025, asserted that Europe is already engaged in a hybrid war waged by Russia. She described the recent drone incidents and airspace violations as a 'coherent and escalating campaign to unsettle our citizens, test our resolve, divide our Union, and weaken our support for Ukraine.' While not directly attributing every incident to Russia, von der Leyen emphasized Moscow's apparent goal to 'sow discord' in Europe.

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, commented on the appearance of unidentified drones over European sites, stating it was a 'way to scare Europeans with war,' without directly acknowledging Russia's involvement.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

In response to the escalating threats, German lawmakers on Wednesday, October 8, 2025, paved the way for local police forces to be granted permission to shoot down drones. Munich Airport has also deployed a laser installation near one of its runways to detect and track unauthorised drones.

The European Commission has proposed and prioritised four 'flagship projects' to counter these threats, including an 'Eastern Flank Watch,' an air defence shield, a defence space shield, and a 'drone wall.' Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has stressed the need for Europe to strengthen its production of drones and anti-drone capabilities, aiming for total self-defence by 2030.

In Kenya, the use of drones is governed by the Civil Aviation (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) Regulations, 2020, overseen by the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA). These regulations mandate registration and certification for all drones, prohibit flights in restricted zones like airports and military areas without special permission, and set altitude limits. Commercial drone operators require a Remote Aircraft Operators Certificate (ROC) from the KCAA. Importing or exporting drones also requires KCAA approval.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

The disruptions have impacted thousands of passengers, with many stranded overnight at airports. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt described the Munich incident as a 'wake-up call' regarding the drone threat, calling for increased financing and research at national and European levels.

Experts warn that Europe's heightened vigilance could lead to a cycle of overreaction, with some mysterious flying objects later identified as stars, planes, or balloons. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has amplified fears of hybrid warfare, leading to immediate assumptions of espionage or attack when unidentified objects appear.

Evidence and Data

Risks and Implications

The proliferation of drones, particularly in military contexts, has been described as a 'drone revolution' that is reshaping warfare. While drones offer advantages in minimizing risk to human pilots, concerns exist about their potential to create a state of 'permanent war' due to reduced public and political pressure.

For Kenya, while the current incidents are geographically distant, the global rise in drone usage and the evolving nature of hybrid threats have implications for national security. Kenya's drone regulations aim to balance the benefits of drone technology with concerns about security, privacy, and wildlife protection. Unauthorised drone use near airports, military zones, and national parks is strictly prohibited, with penalties including confiscation, fines, and imprisonment.

Unknowns and Controversies

Despite strong suspicions, direct public evidence linking Moscow to the specific drone incidents at European airports, including Munich, remains unconfirmed, and Russia has denied involvement. This ambiguity is characteristic of hybrid warfare, where actions are 'calculated to linger in the twilight of deniability.'

There is also an ongoing debate among experts regarding whether the surge in drone sightings represents genuine security threats or a pattern of mass misidentification fueled by heightened anxiety.

Timeline and Next Steps

• October 2, 2025: Initial drone sightings lead to closure of Munich Airport.
• October 3-4, 2025: Further drone sightings at Munich Airport cause additional disruptions.
• October 8, 2025: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warns of Russia's 'hybrid war' against Europe.
• Ongoing: European nations are discussing and implementing enhanced counter-drone measures and defence strategies.

What to Watch

The coming months will likely see increased investment in counter-drone technologies and a push for greater coordination among European nations to address hybrid threats. The effectiveness of new defence mechanisms, such as Germany's laser installations and the proposed 'drone wall,' will be closely monitored. In Kenya, continued enforcement and potential refinement of drone regulations will be crucial as the technology evolves globally.