In a scene reminiscent of a biblical plague, over four million salmon have died prematurely in Tasmania, turning the pristine waters of Macquarie Harbour into a graveyard of rotting fish. But as Australia grapples with this environmental catastrophe, the stench should be serving as a wake-up call thousands of miles away on the shores of Lake Victoria.

New data from the Tasmanian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) reveals a horrific toll: 20,133 tonnes of fish lost in 2025 alone. The cause? A deadly cocktail of rising ocean temperatures (hitting 18°C) and overcrowding, leading to oxygen depletion and disease. It is a classic case of corporate greed colliding with climate reality. The "mort balls"—congealed masses of fat and rotting flesh washing up on beaches—are the physical manifestation of an industry that pushed nature too far.

The Kenyan Lens: A Mirror to Lake Victoria?

Why should a Kenyan care about dead fish in Australia? Because we are rushing headlong into the same trap. The Kenya Kwanza administration’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) has prioritized the "Blue Economy," aggressively promoting cage fish farming in Lake Victoria. We are inviting investors to set up intensive feedlots in a lake that is already choking on water hyacinth and pollution.

• The Temperature Trap: Just like Tasmania, Lake Victoria is warming due to climate change. High stocking densities in warmer water is a recipe for the exact same mass die-offs we are seeing Down Under.
• Regulatory Weakness: If the robust Australian EPA struggled to prevent this, what chance does NEMA—perennially underfunded and politically pressured—have against multinational fish farmers?
• The Livelihood Threat: In Tasmania, the tourism industry is in uproar over the pollution. In Kenya, a similar collapse would wipe out the livelihoods of thousands of artisanal fishermen who depend on the lake’s natural ecosystem.

Profit vs. Planet

"We are essentially at the stage where the waters... aren’t fit for purpose for salmon," warned Stewart Frusher, a University of Tasmania expert. Replace "Tasmania" with "Winam Gulf," and the prophecy becomes terrifyingly local. The Kenyan government must look at these 4 million dead fish not as a statistic, but as a crystal ball.

We cannot legislate our way out of biology. If we prioritize investor dividends over ecological carrying capacity, it won’t be long before dead tilapia are washing up on the beaches of Kisumu, and by then, it will be too late for inquiries.