NAIROBI — The specter of electoral violence has once again cast a long shadow over Uganda, just months into the campaigns for the 2026 General Election. On Monday, the Electoral Commission (EC) of Uganda issued a stern condemnation following violent confrontations that erupted during a rally by opposition frontrunner Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, in Gulu City.

The clashes, which turned the streets of Gulu into a battleground on Saturday, December 6, have drawn sharp focus from Nairobi. For Kenya, stability in Uganda is not merely a diplomatic courtesy; it is an economic imperative. As our largest trading partner and the gateway to the hinterland, any tremor in Kampala is felt in the wallets of traders in Mombasa and Kisumu.

The Gulu Flashpoint

Witnesses report that the violence began when Mr. Kyagulanyi’s convoy, en route to a scheduled rally at Awere Grounds, was intercepted by groups of men armed with sticks and clubs. The situation rapidly deteriorated as police and military units moved in, ostensibly to restore order, but instead engaged in running battles with National Unity Platform (NUP) supporters.

Teargas canisters were lobbed into the crowds, and live bullets were reportedly fired in the air. Among the injured was Kyagulanyi’s close aide and producer, Daniel Oyirwoth—known as 'Dan Magic'—who sustained a deep head wound and was rushed to a local hospital. Vehicles belonging to the campaign team were vandalized, their sound systems smashed.

"They destroyed the sound, destroyed the stage, broke all the glasses on this car," Kyagulanyi told supporters later that evening, his voice hoarse from the teargas. "But you have all seen what they have been doing to me, and only me."

The Commission’s 'Safe' Stance

In a statement issued from Kampala on Monday, EC Chairperson Justice Simon Byabakama described the events as "unfortunate and uncalled for." He warned that such incidents threaten the credibility of the upcoming 2026 polls.

• The Warning: Byabakama cautioned that while campaigns had started peacefully in September, the rising temperature risks derailing the democratic process.
• The Call to Action: He urged police to investigate the "root causes" of the violence but stopped short of directly blaming security forces, a nuance that has not gone unnoticed by rights groups.
• The Omission: Critics point out that despite video evidence circulating on social media showing uniformed officers alongside plain-clothed assailants, the EC's statement remained carefully neutral.

Why Nairobi Should Worry

For the Kenyan observer, the stakes are high. The Northern Corridor, which funnels goods from the Port of Mombasa through Uganda to Rwanda and the DRC, relies on a peaceful Uganda. Disruption in Gulu or Kampala often translates to stalled trucks at the Malaba border and spiked fuel prices in the Great Lakes region.

While the EC has called for dialogue, the rhetoric on the ground suggests a hardening of positions. Kyagulanyi has accused the state of deploying "goons" to intimidate his base in the North—a region that has historically been a flashpoint for anti-government sentiment.

As the 2026 vote draws nearer, the question remains: Will the EC’s condemnation be enough to rein in the security apparatus, or is Gulu merely a preview of a turbulent election season? For now, the region watches and waits.