Observer Missions Divided on Legitimacy

A Kenyan member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), David Sankok, on Wednesday, November 5, 2025, asserted that Tanzania's recent general election complied with the nation's constitutional standards. Speaking in Nairobi, Sankok accused unspecified “external forces” and “evil societies” of fueling the deadly post-election unrest that has gripped the neighbouring country. “What happened in the United Republic of Tanzania is guided by their own constitution, and citizens from the seven other member states must respect that Constitution,” Sankok stated.

His assessment directly contradicts the preliminary findings of major regional observer missions. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Electoral Observation Mission (SEOM) concluded that the election “fell short of the requirements of the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections.” The SADC report, released on Monday, November 3, 2025, cited intimidation of opposition leaders, restricted freedoms, and a lack of transparency as key factors undermining the poll's credibility. Similarly, the African Union (AU) observer mission noted on Wednesday, November 5, 2025, that while Tanzania made efforts to comply with its legal frameworks, the process was compromised by the non-implementation of recommended reforms and an internet shutdown, ultimately failing to meet AU democratic norms.

The East African Community (EAC) also deployed a 67-member observer mission, which included representatives from EALA, to monitor the polls. That mission, headed by former Ugandan Vice President Dr. Speciosa Kazibwe, was expected to issue its own preliminary findings shortly after the election. Sankok's individual statement, however, highlights a potential rift within the regional bloc's parliamentary arm regarding the election's legitimacy.

A Landslide Victory Amidst Disqualification and Unrest

Tanzania's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Saturday, November 1, 2025, declared incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan the winner of the October 29 election with over 97% of the vote. Her party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has governed Tanzania since its independence in 1961. The election, however, was held after the country's main opposition parties were effectively sidelined. Tundu Lissu, leader of the main opposition party Chadema, was arrested in April 2025 on treason charges and his party was subsequently barred from participating. Luhaga Mpina, the presidential candidate for another significant opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, was also disqualified.

The announcement of the results triggered widespread protests across major cities, including Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Mwanza. Human rights organizations and international media have reported a violent crackdown by Tanzanian security forces, involving live ammunition, tear gas, and mass arrests. While the government has acknowledged some deaths and blamed the unrest on criminals and foreign interference, opposition parties claim hundreds have been killed. The government also imposed a near-total internet and social media blackout on election day, which has only been partially lifted, impeding the flow of information.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The political crisis in Tanzania, a key trading partner for Kenya and a central member of the EAC, carries significant regional implications. The divergence between Sankok's endorsement and the critical reports from the AU and SADC points to a lack of consensus on democratic standards within East Africa's institutional frameworks. This could strain diplomatic relations and complicate the EAC's agenda of deeper integration, which relies on shared principles of good governance and the rule of law as enshrined in the EAC Treaty.

Sankok also criticized Kenyan political figures, including Martha Karua, for alleged interference in Tanzania's internal affairs after she was denied entry while attempting to observe Tundu Lissu's trial earlier in the year. The escalating situation, including a recent directive by Tanzanian police for all premises to register foreign guests, could affect Kenyan citizens and businesses operating in the country. As the international community, including the European Union and the United Nations, expresses grave concern over the violence and democratic backsliding, the stability of the entire East African region remains a critical watchpoint. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED on the official position of the EAC observer mission.