Beijing has delivered a masterclass in economic resilience, posting a "hard-won" 5% GDP growth for 2025. But beneath the headline figure lies a complex story of an export machine running hot to compensate for a domestic engine that is sputtering.

The National Bureau of Statistics revealed that while the annual target was met, growth slowed to 4.5% in the final quarter. This deceleration is the canary in the coal mine, signaling that the structural issues plaguing the world's second-largest economy—specifically the property crisis and weak consumer confidence—are far from resolved.

The Export Lifeline

China’s factories saved the day. Despite the headwinds of US tariffs and global protectionism, exports surged, creating a trade surplus of over $1.2 trillion (approx. KES 156 trillion). To put this in perspective, China's trade surplus alone is more than 10 times the entire GDP of Kenya. This flood of cheap, high-tech goods—from EVs to solar panels—kept the lights on in Guangdong’s industrial hubs.

"The world is still buying what China is selling," notes economic analyst Lynn Song. "But the reliance on external demand is risky when trade walls are going up everywhere from Brussels to Washington."

The Domestic Drag

The picture at home is less rosy:

• Property Crisis: Real estate investment plummeted by 17.2%, continuing to drag down household wealth.
• Consumer Caution: Retail sales growth is anemic, as citizens choose to save rather than spend in an uncertain environment.

Why It Matters to Kenya

For Kenya, China’s scorecard is a double-edged sword. A slowing China means lower demand for commodities, potentially hurting African exports. However, the glut of Chinese manufactured goods means cheaper imports for Kenyan consumers—though this comes at the cost of local industries struggling to compete.

As Beijing pivots to 2026, the strategy is clear: double down on "new productive forces" like AI and green tech. The Dragon is not stumbling, but it is certainly changing its gait.