The world’s factory is still humming, but the gears are grinding. China has reported an economic growth of 5% for 2025, hitting its official target. However, beneath the headline figure lies a fragile reality of demographic collapse, sluggish domestic spending, and the looming shadow of Donald Trump’s tariff wars.

While Beijing celebrates the "around 5%" achievement—driven largely by a record surge in exports—analysts are reading the fine print with skepticism. Growth slowed to 4.5% in the final quarter, signaling that the engine is losing steam. For Kenya, a nation heavily reliant on Chinese imports and infrastructure loans, these tremors in the East are felt in the pockets of the West.

The "Trump Effect" and Tariff Turmoil

The resilience of the Chinese economy is being tested by the aggressive protectionist policies of the US President. Trump’s tariffs have disrupted supply chains, forcing Beijing to pivot even harder towards markets in the Global South, including Africa. This could mean cheaper goods flooding Nairobi’s River Road, but it also signals a volatile period for global trade.

More alarmingly, China is shrinking. The country recorded its lowest number of births since records began in 1949, with the population falling by 3.4 million. A shrinking workforce in the world's second-largest economy is a long-term disaster that no amount of government stimulus can easily fix.

• The Data Doubts: Economists like Zichun Huang suggest the official figures might be "overstating" expansion by up to 1.5%. If China is actually growing at 3.5%, the global demand for raw materials—from oil to copper—could plummet.
• The Property Crisis: The collapse of the real estate sector continues to weigh down consumer confidence. Chinese citizens are saving, not spending, which stalls the pivot to a consumption-based economy.

What It Means for Kenya

A slowing China means a hungrier China—hungry for export markets to offload excess capacity. While this keeps consumer goods cheap, it complicates Kenya’s efforts to build its own manufacturing base.

Beijing has hit its goal, but the cost of victory is high. As the demographic crisis deepens and trade wars heat up, the Dragon is not breathing fire—it is catching its breath.