The diplomatic honeymoon is over. The United States has initiated a "comprehensive review" of its bilateral relations with Tanzania, citing a disturbing slide into repression following the disputed October 2025 elections.

The State Department’s announcement is a diplomatic bombshell. For years, Tanzania was viewed as an island of stability. Now, Washington is openly questioning the government’s "reliability as a partner." The review was triggered by what the US terms "ongoing repression of religious freedom," the silencing of free speech, and state-sanctioned violence against civilians who dared to protest the election results.

The Ghost of October 29

The roots of this rupture lie in the October 29 polls, where President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s administration claimed a 98% victory—a figure that US Senators Jim Risch and Jeanne Shaheen have dismissed as a farce. The subsequent crackdown saw opposition leaders arrested, internet blackouts, and police brutality on the streets of Dar es Salaam. "You cannot shoot your way to legitimacy," one diplomat remarked privately.

• Investment at Risk: The review is not just political; it’s economic. The US explicitly mentioned "persistent obstacles to US investment." This is a veiled threat to cut Tanzania off from trade benefits like AGOA and freeze future MCC compacts. For an economy desperate for foreign direct investment, this is a crisis.
• The "Why Not Now?" Defense: The Tanzanian government has reacted with defiance, asking "Why not now?"—implying that the review is an interference in sovereignty. But behind the bluster, there is panic. Losing US backing would leave Dodoma isolated and dependent on Beijing, a pivot that carries its own heavy price tag.

A Strategic Pivot

This move signals a shift in US policy in East Africa: stability is no longer enough if it comes at the cost of democracy. President Hassan, once the darling of the West for her reformist rhetoric, now finds herself in the penalty box. The message from Washington is clear: fix the rights record, or face the cold.