The government has moved swiftly to quell growing speculation of a diplomatic rift between Nairobi and Beijing, dismissing reports that Kenya has frozen a lucrative trade deal with China to appease the United States.

In a strongly worded statement, government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura termed claims of a "cold war" as "baseless propaganda." The clarification comes amidst swirling reports that President William Ruto halted the signing of a zero-tariff pact with China—a deal that would have seen Kenyan coffee, tea, and avocados enter the 1.4 billion-person market duty-free—after Washington allegedly warned it could jeopardize Kenya’s eligibility for the US Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP).

The Geopolitical Squeeze

Kenya finds itself in the eye of a geoeconomic storm. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-3)On one side sits the US, a critical market for textiles whose AGOA benefits just expired, leaving exporters facing 28% tariffs. On the other sits China, Kenya’s largest creditor and infrastructure partner, offering a trade lifeline to buffer the AGOA shock.

"Our relationship with China remains robust and strategic. We are strictly guided by our national interest, not external pressure," Mwaura asserted. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-5)However, insiders paint a picture of a delicate balancing act. The proposed China pact is reportedly gathering dust at the Ministry of Trade as Nairobi prioritizes securing a replacement for AGOA to save 66,000 textile jobs.

What is at Stake?

• The China Offer: Beijing had agreed in principle to remove tariffs on key agricultural exports, a move aimed at correcting the massive trade imbalance favoring Chinese imports.
• The US Ultimatum: American officials reportedly signaled that deepening trade ties with Beijing could be viewed as incompatible with the "trusted partner" status required for future US trade benefits.

While the government maintains a brave face publicly, the delay in finalizing the "Early Harvest" deal with China suggests that for now, Nairobi is forced to choose between its oldest security ally and its newest economic giant. For the Kenyan farmer and factory worker, the diplomatic nuance matters less than the market access that keeps them employed.