The road to Kyiv’s salvation may run through the Arabian sands. In a dramatic geopolitical twist, the UAE is hosting secret trilateral talks this weekend between the US, Ukraine, and Russia. With Donald Trump back in the White House and aggressively pushing for a deal, President Zelenskyy finds himself at a table he can no longer afford to leave.

The Kremlin has arrived with its usual maximalist demands: total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas. It is a bitter pill, but the mood music has changed. Trump’s erratic foreign policy—evidenced by his bizarre feud with Denmark over Greenland—has convinced European capitals that the American security umbrella is leaking. Ukraine knows it must cut a deal while it still has cards to play.

The Art of the Compromise

Zelenskyy’s tone at Davos was telling. "Russians have to be ready for compromises," he said, but crucially added, "Everybody has to be ready." It was the first public admission that Ukraine might have to trade land for peace.

• The UAE Factor: Abu Dhabi has deftly positioned itself as the Switzerland of the Global South. By hosting these talks, the UAE proves that the future of diplomacy is multipolar. They have the ear of both Putin and the West.
• The Greenland Distraction: Trump’s absurd tariff threat against Europe over Greenland is a classic negotiation tactic—create chaos elsewhere to force focus where you want it. He wants the Ukraine war "solved" to pivot to his next obsession.

A Cold Peace

For the soldiers in the frozen trenches of Avdiivka, these talks feel a world away. But the reality is stark: the ammunition is running low, and the West’s patience is running out.

If a deal is struck in the desert, it will likely be an ugly peace. But for a nation bleeding out, an ugly peace is better than a beautiful war.