A gathering meant to project unity for America's conservative right has instead showcased bitter infighting, a development that could signal unpredictable shifts in US foreign policy with direct consequences for Kenyan households. The Turning Point USA's AmericaFest conference in Phoenix, held from December 18-21, became a public battleground for some of the most influential figures in the 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) movement, including Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and Donald Trump Jr.

For Kenya, the turmoil within a political movement shaping policy in its top trading partner is more than just foreign drama. It poses critical questions about the future of trade deals, development aid, and security partnerships that underpin the nation's economy and regional stability. An unstable or increasingly fractured US political landscape could jeopardize everything from textile jobs dependent on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) to crucial health funding.

A Family Feud with Global Consequences

The event, intended to be a tribute to Turning Point's founder Charlie Kirk who was killed in September, instead highlighted a power vacuum and deep ideological splits. Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro openly condemned media personality Tucker Carlson from the stage for interviewing a white nationalist, calling it an "act of moral imbecility." Carlson later mocked the criticism, dismissing the calls to deplatform rivals as "hilarious."

This public spat is emblematic of a larger struggle over the direction of American conservatism. Erika Kirk, the founder's widow and new leader of the organization, acknowledged the tensions, stating, "When he was assassinated, we saw infighting. We've seen fractures." Another prominent conservative, Vivek Ramaswamy, noted, "We're at a fork in the road... there are competing visions for the future of the right."

What a Divided Right Means for Nairobi

The implications of this discord are significant for Kenya. The United States remains a critical partner, with total goods and services trade estimated at $3.3 billion (approx. KES 425 billion) in 2024. However, the Trump administration's "America First" approach has already introduced uncertainty, including a 10% tariff on Kenyan exports and a suspension of foreign aid for review.

Analysts warn that a more divided and inwardly-focused conservative movement could accelerate this unpredictability. Key areas of concern for Kenya include:

• Trade Agreements: The future of AGOA, which provides duty-free access for many Kenyan goods to the US market, is uncertain as Washington pivots towards bilateral deals. A new reciprocal trade agreement is under negotiation, but political infighting could complicate or delay its finalization.
• Foreign Aid: The US is a top donor to Kenya's health sector, providing billions of dollars for HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria programs. Abrupt policy shifts, such as the dismantling of USAID and freezes on aid, have already disrupted health systems and threaten the jobs of thousands of healthcare workers.
• Security Partnership: Kenya's status as a Major Non-NATO Ally is crucial for counterterrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa. A change in US foreign policy priorities could impact military aid, intelligence sharing, and joint security operations.

As the MAGA movement grapples with its identity and future leadership, Kenyan policymakers and business leaders will be watching closely. The political battles playing out in Phoenix could very well determine the economic and security landscape in Nairobi for years to come.