The maneuvering space for ODM MPs opposed to the deal with President Ruto is shrinking by the day. Despite Oburu Oginga’s "open door" policy, the party machinery is quietly moving to isolate dissenters, stripping them of key committee positions and denying them the platform at party events.

Sources within Chungwa House reveal a strategy of "containment without confrontation." Rebels like Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are finding themselves increasingly marginalized within the party structures they once commanded. The message is subtle but effective: you can stay, but you will not be heard.

To Go or Not to Go?

The rebels face a classic prisoner’s dilemma. Leaving ODM to form a new party is a logistical and financial nightmare, especially without the backing of a regional kingpin. Staying means swallowing their pride and toeing a line they detest. "They are hoping to incite the base against the leadership," notes a political strategist. "But without Raila, the base is confused and looking for direction, which Oburu is currently providing."

• The Grassroots War: The battle has moved to the grassroots, with rival factions holding parallel meetings in Nyanza. However, the state’s embrace of the pro-government faction—complete with police protection and development promises—is tipping the scales.
• The End Game: Unless the rebels can coalesce into a formidable "Third Force," they risk political oblivion. In Kenyan politics, it is cold outside the big tent, and right now, ODM is zipping up the flaps.