BELÉM, BRAZIL – After marathon negotiations that stretched into the early hours of Saturday, November 22, 2025, the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) concluded with a fragile agreement that kept international climate cooperation intact but failed to deliver a decisive blow against the fossil fuel industry. For Kenya and the wider East African region, the outcome presents a mixed bag of incremental progress on climate finance overshadowed by a significant shortfall in global commitment to phase out oil, gas, and coal.

The final deal, dubbed the “Belém Package” or “Global Mutirão,” a Portuguese term for collective effort, was gavelled through after intense debate. UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell acknowledged the turbulent geopolitical landscape, stating, “We knew this COP would take place in stormy political waters.” He conceded that the world is not yet winning the climate fight but emphasized that the agreement shows “climate cooperation is alive and kicking.” The deal reaffirms that the global transition to a low-emission, climate-resilient future is “irreversible.”

Fossil Fuels and Deforestation: A Contentious Stalemate

A major point of contention was the failure to agree on a formal, UN-backed roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. A coalition of over 80 countries, including Kenya, had pushed for explicit language and clear timelines. However, strong opposition, reportedly led by Saudi Arabia and other petrostates, resulted in the removal of this critical commitment from the final negotiated text. Instead, the Brazilian COP30 presidency announced it would create two voluntary roadmaps—one for the fossil fuel transition and another to halt and reverse deforestation—outside the formal UN process. This compromise was met with disappointment by many nations and climate activists who view it as a significant concession to fossil fuel interests.

Kenya, which has positioned itself as a leader in the green energy transition with 93% of its electricity coming from renewable sources, had been a vocal advocate for a fossil fuel phase-out. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, leading the Kenyan delegation, had called on the summit to “settle the pending and urgent question of a global fossil fuel phase-out.” The lack of a binding global agreement complicates Kenya's own ambitious climate targets, much of which are conditional on international financial support.

Gains for Kenya: Adaptation Finance and Climate Justice

Despite the setbacks, the Belém summit delivered some crucial wins for developing nations. A key outcome was a commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035. This was a central demand for African nations, which contribute minimally to global emissions but suffer disproportionately from climate impacts like drought and floods.

Throughout the conference, Kenya's delegation, led by Environment Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa, championed the cause of climate justice. In high-level meetings, CS Barasa, who also served as a co-facilitator for climate finance, argued that financial support is “a matter of justice, not charity,” urging developed nations to honor their commitments under the Paris Agreement with predictable, grant-based funding. Kenya's Special Climate Envoy, Ali Mohamed, reiterated this, stating, “resilience and adaptation cannot remain afterthoughts for a continent responsible for less than four per cent of global emissions.”

The Kenyan delegation held bilateral talks with the UK, Singapore, Switzerland, and China to advance initiatives like its 15-billion-tree program, the development of carbon markets, and investments in renewable energy.

The Road Ahead for East Africa

The COP30 outcome underscores the deep divisions in the global response to the climate crisis. While the multilateral process survived, the failure to secure a fossil fuel exit plan raises the stakes for vulnerable regions like East Africa. The East African Community (EAC) had worked to present a unified voice at the summit, highlighting shared vulnerabilities to food insecurity, floods, and droughts.

The increased adaptation finance is a welcome development, but experts warn it is still far short of the estimated $310 billion needed annually by developing nations. For East Africa, the focus now shifts to ensuring these financial pledges translate into tangible projects that build resilience on the ground. This includes supporting locally-led climate action, strengthening early warning systems, and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and agriculture.

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted, “COP30 is over, but the work is not.” For Kenya and its neighbours, the fight for a just and sustainable future continues, with a renewed focus on holding developed nations accountable for their financial promises while accelerating the homegrown transition to a green economy.