The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has dropped a constitutional bombshell, admitting that the legally mandated review of electoral boundaries will not be completed before the 2027 General Election. This admission plunges the country into a legal gray zone, threatening the legitimacy of the upcoming polls.

IEBC Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon, in a candid briefing to the National Assembly, cited "insurmountable legal and operational constraints." The Commission has missed the constitutional window of 8 to 12 years for the review, with the deadline having technically lapsed in March 2024. The delay creates a nightmare scenario where the 2027 election could be challenged as unconstitutional because the constituency boundaries do not reflect the current population distribution.

The "Impossible" Timeline

"We are in a race against time that we have already lost," Ethekon told the committee. The Constitution requires the boundary review to be finalized at least 12 months before a general election—meaning July 2026. With the Commission only recently reconstituted and the 2019 Census data tied up in litigation, the math simply does not add up.

• The Representation Gap: Dozens of constituencies, particularly in protected areas, currently fail to meet the population quota. Without a review, millions of Kenyans remain under-represented, violating the principle of "one man, one vote, one value."
• The Census Hurdle: The 2019 Census data for North Eastern counties was nullified by the High Court, and the appeal is still pending. The IEBC cannot redraw a single line without valid population data.
• Phased Approach: The Commission is now proposing a "phased approach," a euphemism for doing the bare minimum now and kicking the can down the road—a strategy legal scholars warn invites immediate litigation.

Political Fallout

The delay is not just a bureaucratic failure; it is a political hot potato. Regions expecting new constituencies—and the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) millions that come with them—are crying foul. Conversely, MPs in "protected" constituencies that should have been scrapped are breathing a sigh of relief.

Parliament must now intervene. The only way out may be a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court advisory opinion to sanitize the delay. Without it, the 2027 election is walking into a legal minefield.

The IEBC has sounded the alarm; it remains to be seen if the political class will wake up before the crisis becomes a catastrophe.