The 2027 General Election will be fought on old maps. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has dropped a bombshell, announcing that it will not undertake the constitutionally mandated boundary delimitation exercise before the next polls, citing insurmountable legal and financial hurdles.

In a candid admission, IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon revealed that the commission is hamstrung by a lack of time and a budget deficit of Sh20 billion. The decision effectively freezes the political geography of Kenya, disenfranchising heavily populated areas that were hoping for new constituencies and better representation.

The Constitutional Dilemma

Article 89 of the Constitution requires the IEBC to review names and boundaries of constituencies at intervals of not less than eight and not more than twelve years. The last review was in 2012. By postponing the exercise, the commission is walking a tightrope of legality.

"We are prioritizing the preparation for the 2027 election," Ethekon stated. "To attempt a full boundary review now, with the strict timelines and litigation risks, would jeopardize the election itself."

Winners and Losers

The decision has immediate political ramifications. Regions with exploded populations—like Nairobi, Kiambu, and Bungoma—will continue to be underrepresented. The constitutional cap of 290 constituencies remains a hard ceiling, meaning the IEBC could only have adjusted boundaries, not added seats.

• Representation Gap: The principle of "one man, one vote, one shilling" suffers a setback as populous constituencies remain huge and unwieldy.
• Legal Challenges: Experts predict a wave of lawsuits from civil society and aspiring politicians challenging the constitutionality of holding an election with outdated boundaries.
• Budget Woes: The commission’s cry for funds exposes the perennial underfunding of independent bodies, leaving them unable to fulfill their core mandates.

A Phased Approach

The IEBC has proposed a "phased approach," focusing on technical preparations now and deferring the actual drawing of lines until after 2027. While pragmatic, it leaves a constitutional question mark hanging over the legitimacy of the next parliament. For now, the boundaries remain drawn in ink from 2012, even as the reality of 2026 Kenya has moved on.