Colombia’s oldest guerrilla faction has issued a chilling directive to civilians in its territories: stay inside or risk becoming collateral damage in a looming showdown with Washington.

The National Liberation Army (ELN) announced a strict 72-hour armed lockdown starting Sunday, framing the mobilization as a direct retaliation to President Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum that nations fueling the US cocaine crisis are now “subject to attack.” For Kenyans watching the global war on drugs evolve, this escalation marks a volatile shift in US foreign policy that prioritizes military intervention over diplomacy.

Mobilizing Against ‘Imperialism’

The ELN, which maintains a stronghold over Colombia’s key drug-producing regions, declared on Friday that it would mobilize its forces for the country’s “defense.” The group explicitly cited Trump’s warnings as the catalyst for these sudden military exercises.

In a communiqué widely circulated in the region, the group warned civilians to remain indoors starting at 6:00 am on Sunday. “It is necessary for civilians not to mix with fighters to avoid accidents,” the statement cautioned, signaling a high readiness for kinetic engagement.

The move comes weeks after President Trump asserted that any nation producing cocaine for the US market would face military consequences—a stance the ELN has branded as “threats of imperialist intervention.”

A Region on the Brink

The tension in the Andean region is not isolated to Colombia. The geopolitical temperature has spiked following Washington’s intensified pressure on neighboring Venezuela. The US administration has placed a staggering $50 million bounty (approx. KES 6.5 billion) on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, accusing him of narco-terrorism.

This financial pressure has been accompanied by significant military posturing:

• Naval Deployment: A massive US military buildup is currently underway in the Caribbean.
• Lethal Airstrikes: Recent operations targeting alleged narco vessels have resulted in over 80 fatalities.
• Border Tensions: The spillover effects threaten to destabilize the porous border between Colombia and Venezuela.

The Scale of the Insurgency

While the rhetoric is high, the ELN’s capacity for violence is well-documented. According to data from the Insight Crime research center, the group is far from a ragtag militia. It commands a force of approximately 5,800 combatants and maintains an active presence in more than 20 percent of Colombia’s 1,100 municipalities.

For the civilians caught between the crosshairs of a superpower’s ultimatum and a guerrilla army’s resistance, the coming days promise uncertainty. The ELN’s directive effectively holds entire communities hostage under the guise of protection, turning local villages into potential battlegrounds in a war dictated from thousands of miles away.