The battle for the soul of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has shifted to the coast, where a powerful faction of delegates is demanding that Mining CS Hassan Joho be handed the party leadership mantle as Raila Odinga transitions to the African Union Commission.

This push creates a massive legal and political headache for the opposition outfit. While Joho is a deputy party leader, his current role as a Cabinet Secretary in President Ruto’s broad-based government constitutionally bars him from holding political office. Yet, his supporters argue that he is the only figure with the financial muscle and charisma to hold the party together.

The "Sultan" Factor

Joho’s backers feel the region has been loyal to ODM for decades and deserves the top seat. They are resisting the aggressive maneuvering by the Nairobi-Nyanza axis, led by Edwin Sifuna and Gladys Wanga, who are also eyeing control.

• The Dilemma: To lead ODM, Joho would have to resign from the Cabinet—a gamble that would strip him of state power. His supporters, however, believe the party leadership is the superior vehicle for a 2027 presidential run.
• Regional Politics: The uprising is also a defense mechanism against UDA’s encroachment. Coastal leaders fear that without a strong local kingpin at the helm of a major party, the region will be swallowed by the ruling coalition.
• Raila’s Silence: The enigma himself has remained tight-lipped, allowing the factions to fight it out. But he knows that ignoring the Coast could fracture his base irreparably.

Implosion or Rebirth?

ODM is at a crossroads. The clamor for Joho represents a demand for generational change and regional equity. If the party mishandles this transition, the Orange may finally run out of juice.