The Liberal-National Coalition, the bedrock of conservative politics in Australia for a century, is crumbling before our eyes. Opposition Leader Sussan Ley stares down the barrel of the parliamentary week leading an "anemic" force of just 28 MPs—the smallest opposition bench since 1943.

The divorce between the Liberals and the Nationals is messy, public, and politically suicidal. The desertion of 14 National Party MPs has left Ley exposed, presiding over a rump party that is fighting a war on two fronts: against the Labor government and against its own former allies. It is a shambles that threatens to consign the center-right to the political wilderness for a generation.

The Shadow of 1943

History is repeating itself as farce. Not since the darkest days of World War II, when the United Australia Party disintegrated, has an opposition looked this frail. The physical optics in the House of Representatives will be humiliating; unless they practice "social distancing," the empty green leather benches behind Ley will serve as a visual monument to her failure to hold the alliance together.

• The Leadership Vultures: Angus Taylor is circling. The shadow defence minister is the "spectre" haunting Ley’s leadership, with party insiders suggesting a spill is inevitable before the fortnight is out. Ley’s interim shadow cabinet is a desperate band-aid on a gaping wound.
• The Policy Schism: The split is driven by ideology. The Nationals, fearing the rise of One Nation in the bush, have lurched to the hard right on climate and energy policy, demanding the abandonment of Net Zero commitments that the urban Liberals cannot afford to lose. It is an irreconcilable difference.
• Labor’s Free Kick: For Prime Minister Albanese, this is a gift. He faces no coherent scrutiny, no alternative government, just a squabbling rabble. The business of government will proceed unchecked, a dangerous state for any democracy.

End of an Era?

If David Littleproud and Sussan Ley cannot stitch this Frankenstein’s monster back together by Tuesday, the "Coalition" exists in name only. Australia is witnessing the atomization of its right wing, a process that will birth a chaotic, multi-party system defined by instability. Sussan Ley may be the leader today, but she is the captain of a sinking ship, and the lifeboats are already full.